Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Severe threat continues over portions of the area, with the new
focus starting to lean towards the south with the low level jet
increasing. Along with the storms already over the area, will have
to keep an eye on new development over South Dakota where
convection was limited earlier and atmosphere has yet to be
worked over. These storms may then move into our area with severe
potential.

UPDATE Issued at 944 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Cancelled severe thunderstorm watch 368 across southwestern ND and
cancelled the watch for the northwestern counties. Currently have
a line of severe thunderstorms pushing through central ND that has
produced 60 to 70 mph winds. Watch 369 is scheduled to end at 11
pm CDT and will likely have to be extended in time for eastern
counties. Otherwise, made some adjustments to pops to account for
current trends.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

All of western and central ND is under a severe thunderstorm watch
through late evening. Severe thunderstorms are ongoing across the
west with very large hail and damaging winds. Significant damage
in Amidon earlier with 2.75 inch size hail reported. Current
thinking is that the storms will organize into an MCS and progress
across the state, which we are beginning to see with a distinct line
of storms just moving through KDIK, which had a 51 knot gust.
Large hail and strong winds would remain the biggest threats. HRRR
brings this line through Bismarck by 9 pm, but timing may change
as line accelerates.

Also cancelled heat advisory across far south central.

UPDATE Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Update to cancel the heat advisory for the southern James river
valley. Clouds kept temperatures from rising into the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Robust upper level low across the northwest Conus will move
east and approach the northern plains this period. A line of
thunderstorms has formed along a cold frontal boundary in eastern
Montana and southwest North Dakota. To the east warm and humid air
will push the heat index above 100 south central early this
evening.

Overnight it appears the threat for thunderstorms will be highest
across the north and west with lower pops south central where it
will take longer to erode the elevated mixed layer and cap.
The threat for severe weather will however extend south to the
south dakota border as the cape and shear are very favorable.
Precipitable water will support some heavy rain potential across
portions of northwest north dakota this evening and possibly east
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Main concerns in the long term will be an anomalous h500 low
forecast to move across northern north dakota into southern canada
by wednesday. Global models look consistent in bringing strong
wrap around winds monday evening and overnight into tuesday
morning. Bufkit soundings show strong wind potential with wind
advisory criteria likely met with a low end warning criteria not
out if the question southwest monday night into tuesday.

will not issue wind headlines yet but will highlight in the
hazardous weather outlook.

the remainder of teh week will be cooler behind the upper upper
low however with a Northwest flow regime there will be at least
chances for thunderstorms through sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will continue overnight,
with some storms lingering into Monday. Also, some IFR cigs have
developed over western portions of North Dakota, which may linger
through the overnight hours before improving on Monday. Gusty
westerly winds develop Monday, especially over southwest North
Dakota.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
140 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

NDZ046-047-050-110715-
MCINTOSH ND-LOGAN ND-EMMONS ND-
140 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOGAN...NORTHERN
MCINTOSH AND NORTHERN EMMONS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 140 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LEHR TO 6 MILES EAST OF PRAIRIE KNIGHTS
RESORT. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINTON...NAPOLEON...WISHEK...GACKLE...HAZELTON...LEHR...BRADDOCK...
BEAVER LAKE STATE PARK...KINTYRE...HAZELTON RECREATION AREA...
BURNSTAD...TEMVIK AND GREEN LAKE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4620 10053 4652 10056 4653 10054 4664 10057
      4663 9907 4617 9916
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 180DEG 18KT 4630 9930 4630 10051

CJS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
239 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 N LINTON              46.34N 100.23W
07/11/2016  M61 MPH          EMMONS             ND   MESONET

            NORTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY NDAWN OBSERVATION SITE.

&&

NHEINERT

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