Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
701 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

All of western and central ND is under a severe thunderstorm watch
through late evening. Severe thunderstorms are ongoing across the
west with very large hail and damaging winds. Significant damage
in Amidon earlier with 2.75 inch size hail reported. Current
thinking is that the storms will organize into an MCS and progress
across the state, which we are beginning to see with a distinct line
of storms just moving through KDIK, which had a 51 knot gust.
Large hail and strong winds would remain the biggest threats. HRRR
brings this line through Bismarck by 9 pm, but timing may change
as line accelerates.

Also cancelled heat advisory across far south central.

UPDATE Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Update to cancel the heat advisory for the southern James river
valley. Clouds kept temperatures from rising into the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Robust upper level low across the northwest Conus will move
east and approach the northern plains this period. A line of
thunderstorms has formed along a cold frontal boundary in eastern
Montana and southwest North Dakota. To the east warm and humid air
will push the heat index above 100 south central early this
evening.

Overnight it appears the threat for thunderstorms will be highest
across the north and west with lower pops south central where it
will take longer to erode the elevated mixed layer and cap.
The threat for severe weather will however extend south to the
south dakota border as the cape and shear are very favorable.
Precipitable water will support some heavy rain potential across
portions of northwest north dakota this evening and possibly east
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Main concerns in the long term will be an anomalous h500 low
forecast to move across northern north dakota into southern canada
by wednesday. Global models look consistent in bringing strong
wrap around winds monday evening and overnight into tuesday
morning. Bufkit soundings show strong wind potential with wind
advisory criteria likely met with a low end warning criteria not
out if the question southwest monday night into tuesday.

will not issue wind headlines yet but will highlight in the
hazardous weather outlook.

the remainder of teh week will be cooler behind the upper upper
low however with a Northwest flow regime there will be at least
chances for thunderstorms through sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Thunderstorms remain the main threat through tonight. KDIK just
had 51 knot gust and 1/4 mile visible, which should improve
shortly as the storms push east. This same line will impact KBIS
by 02Z and KJMS approximately 04Z.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
647 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-120000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
647 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 /547 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO FORWARD ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JNS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
919 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 N BISMARCK            46.90N 100.79W
07/10/2016  M56 MPH          BURLEIGH           ND   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 6 N BISMARCK /C2059/.

&&

MM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
920 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ003-004-011-110300-
WARD ND-RENVILLE ND-BOTTINEAU ND-
920 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE...EAST
CENTRAL WARD AND SOUTHWESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 920 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MINOT AIR FORCE BASE...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF MINOT...MOVING
NORTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINOT AIR FORCE BASE...GLENBURN...LANSFORD...MAXBASS...WOLSETH AND
ECKMAN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4876 10099 4863 10104 4863 10106 4860 10106
      4836 10116 4840 10144 4881 10145
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 189DEG 17KT 4847 10129

HARGROVE/KING