Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
413 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Current surface analysis places frontal boundary stretching
through the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places low
spinning over central Montana. Robust convection continues over
portions of south central into southeast North Dakota where low
level jet has combined with strong instability and shear.

For the rest of this morning...strongest convection is expected to
continue to push on an easterly path, though further west a
variety of upper waves lifting ahead of approaching upper low
continue to produce some areas of showers and thunderstorms.
Expect the stronger instability to slide easterly, though enough
instability will remain for some strong storms to develop over
eastern portions of the area. Cold front pushes through with windy
conditions developing mainly over southwestern North Dakota. Upper
low lifts along the international border overnight with chances
for precipitation continuing, mainly over northern locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Upper low continues to meander along the southern prairie
provinces on Tuesday bringing continued precipitation chances to
the area, with the greatest chances over northern locations. Gusty
westerly winds are expected across the area as models continue to
show ~50kt 850mb winds mixing down with modest cool air advection.
Will have to keep an eye on this as headlines will probably be
needed.

Unsettled pattern remains in place through the remainder of the week
as a variety of disturbances move through bringing a near daily
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will continue overnight,
with some storms lingering into Monday. Also, some IFR cigs have
developed over western portions of North Dakota, which may linger
through the overnight hours before improving on Monday. Gusty
westerly winds develop Monday, especially over southwest North
Dakota.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
334 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

NDZ036-037-047-048-050-051-120845-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
334 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO FORWARD ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-120845-
BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
334 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-120845-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
334 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 /234 AM MDT MON JUL 11 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
213 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

NDZ005-013-110915-
ROLETTE-PIERCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROLLA...DUNSEITH...ROLETTE...
SHELL VALLEY...ST. JOHN...RUGBY
213 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING THUNDERSTORMS.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 400 AM CDT. THIS
INCLUDES THE ROLLA, ROLLETTE, AND RUGBY AREAS.

JJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
236 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 AM     HAIL             PRAIRIE KNIGHTS RESORT  46.27N 100.64W
07/11/2016  E1.50 INCH       SIOUX              ND   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. HAIL WAS ABOUT THE SIZE OF A
            SILVER DOLLAR.

&&

JJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
239 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 N LINTON              46.34N 100.23W
07/11/2016  M61 MPH          EMMONS             ND   MESONET

            NORTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY NDAWN OBSERVATION SITE.

&&

NHEINERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

NDZ037-047-048-050-051-110930-
STUTSMAN ND-DICKEY ND-MCINTOSH ND-LA MOURE ND-LOGAN ND-
345 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
STUTSMAN...DICKEY...EASTERN LOGAN...LAMOURE AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES
UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 345 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF JAMESTOWN TO 7 MILES
SOUTH OF KULM TO 6 MILES NORTH OF LONG LAKE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 65
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAMESTOWN...OAKES...ELLENDALE...ASHLEY...EDGELEY...WISHEK...
LAMOURE...KULM...GACKLE...MARION...YPSILANTI...ADRIAN...MONTPELIER...
VERONA...CLEVELAND...LEHR...SPIRITWOOD...JUD...FULLERTON AND FORBES.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4595 9983 4659 9937 4692 9918 4704 9847
      4663 9844 4662 9803 4594 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0843Z 258DEG 56KT 4688 9884 4662 9863 4619 9891 4595
9921

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
358 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

NDZ045-046-110930-
EMMONS ND-SIOUX ND-
358 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX AND SOUTHERN
EMMONS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 358 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FORT YATES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINTON...FORT YATES...STRASBURG...WESTFIELD...
PRAIRIE KNIGHTS RESORT...CATTAIL RECREATION AREA...
BEAVER BAY RECREATION AREA AND TEMVIK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4632 10076 4640 10018 4622 9988 4594 10030
      4594 10094
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 231DEG 32KT 4607 10060

HEINERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
421 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

NDZ036-046-047-110945-
LOGAN ND-EMMONS ND-KIDDER ND-
421 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN KIDDER...WESTERN LOGAN
AND NORTHERN EMMONS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 421 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINTON...NAPOLEON...STRASBURG...HAZELTON...BRADDOCK...
BEAVER LAKE STATE PARK...KINTYRE...BURNSTAD AND TEMVIK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4627 10050 4664 10013 4664 10008 4669 10008
      4672 10005 4672 9950 4647 9941 4628 9981
      4628 9988 4625 9988 4612 10014
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 230DEG 48KT 4631 10018

HEINERT