Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
954 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Thunderstorms will linger across the southeast based on latest
HRRR runs. will continue to monitor for rainfall may have to
monitor closely the rainfall there. Otherwise expect winds to
increase southwest by this evening. A wind advisory may be needed
later.

UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Thunderstorms continue over south central North Dakota into the
James River Valley along an axis of elevated mid level lapse
rates where stronger instability is noted. Latest RUC guidance,
which seems to have a handle on these lapse rates, gradually
pushes the axis off to the east so expect storms to decrease in
coverage through the morning hours.

Have also added a small area of fog near the Killdeer area where
hail piled up yesterday and is now creating foggy conditions as
noted via area webcam. This should dissipate by mid-morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Current surface analysis places frontal boundary stretching
through the western Dakotas. Upper level analysis places low
spinning over central Montana. Robust convection continues over
portions of south central into southeast North Dakota where low
level jet has combined with strong instability and shear.

For the rest of this morning...strongest convection is expected to
continue to push on an easterly path, though further west a
variety of upper waves lifting ahead of approaching upper low
continue to produce some areas of showers and thunderstorms.
Expect the stronger instability to slide easterly, though enough
instability will remain for some strong storms to develop over
eastern portions of the area. Cold front pushes through with windy
conditions developing mainly over southwestern North Dakota. Upper
low lifts along the international border overnight with chances
for precipitation continuing, mainly over northern locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Upper low continues to meander along the southern prairie
provinces on Tuesday bringing continued precipitation chances to
the area, with the greatest chances over northern locations. Gusty
westerly winds are expected across the area as models continue to
show ~50kt 850mb winds mixing down with modest cool air advection.
Will have to keep an eye on this as headlines will probably be
needed.

Unsettled pattern remains in place through the remainder of the week
as a variety of disturbances move through bringing a near daily
chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Areas of thunderstorms will continue over the region today. This
morning, thunderstorms will remain most numerous over south
central into southeast North Dakota. Tonight, the greatest
coverage will be over the north. Areas of ifr/mvfr cigs will also
be over the area early this morning, though this will improve by
late morning.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
504 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-121015-
BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
504 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-121015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCKENZIE-DUNN-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
504 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 /404 AM MDT MON JUL 11 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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