Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 10, 2016Pierce County, Sheridan County, Wells County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at Jul 10, 2016, 9:46 PM CDT for Pierce County, Sheridan County, Wells County, North Dakota. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 10, 2016, 9:46 PM CDT (02:46 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2016, 10:30 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND

Counties Pierce County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Wells County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1848 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -98 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1509 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 32 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 265 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 4.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 10, 9:44 PM CDT, 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 9:44 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
944 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Cancelled severe thunderstorm watch 368 across southwestern ND and
cancelled the watch for the northwestern counties. Currently have
a line of severe thunderstorms pushing through central ND that has
produced 60 to 70 mph winds. Watch 369 is scheduled to end at 11
pm CDT and will likely have to be extended in time for eastern
counties. Otherwise, made some adjustments to pops to account for
current trends.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

All of western and central ND is under a severe thunderstorm watch
through late evening. Severe thunderstorms are ongoing across the
west with very large hail and damaging winds. Significant damage
in Amidon earlier with 2.75 inch size hail reported. Current
thinking is that the storms will organize into an MCS and progress
across the state, which we are beginning to see with a distinct line
of storms just moving through KDIK, which had a 51 knot gust.
Large hail and strong winds would remain the biggest threats. HRRR
brings this line through Bismarck by 9 pm, but timing may change
as line accelerates.

Also cancelled heat advisory across far south central.

UPDATE Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Update to cancel the heat advisory for the southern James river
valley. Clouds kept temperatures from rising into the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Robust upper level low across the northwest Conus will move
east and approach the northern plains this period. A line of
thunderstorms has formed along a cold frontal boundary in eastern
Montana and southwest North Dakota. To the east warm and humid air
will push the heat index above 100 south central early this
evening.

Overnight it appears the threat for thunderstorms will be highest
across the north and west with lower pops south central where it
will take longer to erode the elevated mixed layer and cap.
The threat for severe weather will however extend south to the
south dakota border as the cape and shear are very favorable.
Precipitable water will support some heavy rain potential across
portions of northwest north dakota this evening and possibly east
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Main concerns in the long term will be an anomalous h500 low
forecast to move across northern north dakota into southern canada
by wednesday. Global models look consistent in bringing strong
wrap around winds monday evening and overnight into tuesday
morning. Bufkit soundings show strong wind potential with wind
advisory criteria likely met with a low end warning criteria not
out if the question southwest monday night into tuesday.

will not issue wind headlines yet but will highlight in the
hazardous weather outlook.

the remainder of teh week will be cooler behind the upper upper
low however with a Northwest flow regime there will be at least
chances for thunderstorms through sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Thunderstorms remain the main threat through tonight. KDIK just
had 51 knot gust and 1/4 mile visible, which should improve
shortly as the storms push east. This same line will impact KBIS
by 02Z and KJMS approximately 04Z.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JNS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 6:47 PM CDT, 2 hours 59 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
647 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-120000-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
647 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 /547 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO FORWARD ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JNS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 10, 9:19 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
919 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 N BISMARCK            46.90N 100.79W
07/10/2016  M56 MPH          BURLEIGH           ND   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 6 N BISMARCK /C2059/.

&&

MM

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 9:20 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
920 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ003-004-011-110300-
WARD ND-RENVILLE ND-BOTTINEAU ND-
920 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE...EAST
CENTRAL WARD AND SOUTHWESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 920 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MINOT AIR FORCE BASE...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF MINOT...MOVING
NORTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINOT AIR FORCE BASE...GLENBURN...LANSFORD...MAXBASS...WOLSETH AND
ECKMAN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4876 10099 4863 10104 4863 10106 4860 10106
      4836 10116 4840 10144 4881 10145
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 189DEG 17KT 4847 10129

HARGROVE/KING

Local storm report, Jul 10, 9:21 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
921 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N BISMARCK            46.90N 100.79W
07/10/2016  M56 MPH          BURLEIGH           ND   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 6 N BISMARCK /C2059/.

&&

MM

Local storm report, Jul 10, 9:30 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     HAIL             1 SSW BISMARCK          46.79N 100.79W
07/10/2016  E1.00 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   PUBLIC

            .

&&

MM

Local storm report, Jul 10, 9:32 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             5 SSW STRAWBERRY LAKE   47.70N 100.93W
07/10/2016  E0.88 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   PUBLIC

            .

&&

MM

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 9:46 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
946 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ012-013-021>023-025-110330-
MCHENRY ND-PIERCE ND-WELLS ND-FOSTER ND-MCLEAN ND-SHERIDAN ND-
946 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SHERIDAN...NORTHEASTERN
MCLEAN...SOUTHWESTERN PIERCE...SOUTHERN MCHENRY...WESTERN FOSTER AND
WELLS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 944 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAWYER TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANAMOOSE TO
9 MILES SOUTH OF GOODRICH. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARRINGTON...HARVEY...MCCLUSKY...VELVA...FESSENDEN...DRAKE...
ANAMOOSE...GOODRICH...HURDSFIELD...KARLSRUHE...MARTIN...BUTTE...
BALTA...CATHAY...BOWDON...SYKESTON...HEIMDAL AND BREMEN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4824 9984 4802 9985 4802 9981 4785 9981
      4784 9929 4767 9930 4767 9927 4759 9927
      4759 9914 4733 9912 4733 10054 4769 10078
      4785 10102 4785 10097 4802 10097 4802 10102
      4811 10101 4832 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 254DEG 32KT 4811 10097 4791 10014 4734 10008

HARGROVE/KING

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 10, 7:01 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Stark	3 hr
Jul 10, 7:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burke	49 min
Jul 10, 7:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Grant, Hettinger, Morton, Sioux, Stark	58 min
Jul 10, 7:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Mercer, Oliver	47 min
Jul 10, 7:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer, Oliver	65 min
Jul 10, 8:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Grant, Morton, Sioux	62 min
Jul 10, 8:36 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Burleigh, Morton	3 hr
Jul 10, 8:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McHenry, McLean, Sheridan	51 min
Jul 10, 9:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Renville	40 min
Jul 10, 9:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Kidder, Logan, McIntosh, Morton and 1 more	56 min
Jul 10, 10:00 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Kidder, Logan, McIntosh	19 hr
Jul 10, 10:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Foster, Sheridan, Wells	57 min
Jul 10, 10:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Kidder, Logan, McIntosh, Stutsman	34 min
Jul 10, 10:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey, Foster, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McIntosh and 1 more	61 min
Jul 10, 11:19 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Foster, Stutsman	3 hr
Jul 10, 11:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Bowman	67 min
Jul 10, 11:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dickey, LaMoure	32 min
Jul 11, 12:12 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Hettinger	63 min
Jul 11, 12:17 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Emmons	43 min
Jul 11, 12:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Sioux	63 min
Jul 11, 12:43 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Grant	32 min
Jul 11, 12:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Sioux	65 min
Jul 11, 1:04 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton	35 min
Jul 11, 1:40 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Emmons, Logan	35 min
Jul 11, 1:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons	55 min
Jul 11, 1:52 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Morton, Sioux	23 min
Jul 11, 2:01 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dickey	44 min
Jul 11, 2:41 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Logan, McIntosh	64 min
Jul 11, 3:45 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dickey, LaMoure, McIntosh	45 min
Jul 11, 3:58 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Emmons	32 min
Jul 11, 4:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Emmons, Logan	24 min
Jul 11, 4:51 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Logan	24 min
Jul 11, 5:33 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Emmons, Logan	27 min
Jul 11, 7:25 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	BIS	Dickey, LaMoure	3 hr
Jul 11, 10:08 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	BIS	Dickey	27 hr
Jul 11, 1:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Logan	36 min
Jul 11, 2:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Grant	34 min
Jul 11, 3:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Sioux	50 min
Jul 11, 3:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Morton	24 min
Jul 11, 3:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Morton	41 min
Jul 11, 4:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Morton, Sioux	42 min
Jul 11, 4:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Sioux	47 min
Jul 11, 5:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Emmons, Kidder, Logan	48 min
Jul 11, 5:37 PM CDT	Wind Advisory	BIS	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Dunn, Golden Valley, Hettinger and 3 more	4 hr
Jul 11, 5:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Wells	24 min
Jul 11, 6:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster, Kidder, Logan, McIntosh, Stutsman, Wells	44 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.