Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Severe threat continues over portions of the area, with the new
focus starting to lean towards the south with the low level jet
increasing. Along with the storms already over the area, will have
to keep an eye on new development over South Dakota where
convection was limited earlier and atmosphere has yet to be
worked over. These storms may then move into our area with severe
potential.

UPDATE Issued at 944 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Cancelled severe thunderstorm watch 368 across southwestern ND and
cancelled the watch for the northwestern counties. Currently have
a line of severe thunderstorms pushing through central ND that has
produced 60 to 70 mph winds. Watch 369 is scheduled to end at 11
pm CDT and will likely have to be extended in time for eastern
counties. Otherwise, made some adjustments to pops to account for
current trends.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

All of western and central ND is under a severe thunderstorm watch
through late evening. Severe thunderstorms are ongoing across the
west with very large hail and damaging winds. Significant damage
in Amidon earlier with 2.75 inch size hail reported. Current
thinking is that the storms will organize into an MCS and progress
across the state, which we are beginning to see with a distinct line
of storms just moving through KDIK, which had a 51 knot gust.
Large hail and strong winds would remain the biggest threats. HRRR
brings this line through Bismarck by 9 pm, but timing may change
as line accelerates.

Also cancelled heat advisory across far south central.

UPDATE Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Update to cancel the heat advisory for the southern James river
valley. Clouds kept temperatures from rising into the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Robust upper level low across the northwest Conus will move
east and approach the northern plains this period. A line of
thunderstorms has formed along a cold frontal boundary in eastern
Montana and southwest North Dakota. To the east warm and humid air
will push the heat index above 100 south central early this
evening.

Overnight it appears the threat for thunderstorms will be highest
across the north and west with lower pops south central where it
will take longer to erode the elevated mixed layer and cap.
The threat for severe weather will however extend south to the
south dakota border as the cape and shear are very favorable.
Precipitable water will support some heavy rain potential across
portions of northwest north dakota this evening and possibly east
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Main concerns in the long term will be an anomalous h500 low
forecast to move across northern north dakota into southern canada
by wednesday. Global models look consistent in bringing strong
wrap around winds monday evening and overnight into tuesday
morning. Bufkit soundings show strong wind potential with wind
advisory criteria likely met with a low end warning criteria not
out if the question southwest monday night into tuesday.

will not issue wind headlines yet but will highlight in the
hazardous weather outlook.

the remainder of teh week will be cooler behind the upper upper
low however with a Northwest flow regime there will be at least
chances for thunderstorms through sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will continue overnight,
with some storms lingering into Monday. Also, some IFR cigs have
developed over western portions of North Dakota, which may linger
through the overnight hours before improving on Monday. Gusty
westerly winds develop Monday, especially over southwest North
Dakota.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

NDZ025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-120600-
FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1250 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 /1150 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO FORWARD ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>033-040-041-043-044-120600-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
1250 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016 /1150 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO FORWARD ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1224 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DICKINSON               46.88N 102.79W
07/10/2016  M2.00 INCH       STARK              ND   PUBLIC

            EAST SIDE OF DICKINSON.

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N CROSBY              48.95N 103.30W
07/10/2016                   DIVIDE             ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY LOCAL MEDIA.
            LOCATION ESTIMATED.

&&

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1243 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

NDZ042-045-110615-
SIOUX ND-GRANT ND-
1243 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GRANT AND
SOUTHWESTERN SIOUX COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT/1215 AM MDT/...

AT 1242 AM CDT/1142 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MORRISTOWN...OR 25 MILES EAST OF
LEMMON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRISTOWN.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT/200 AM
MDT/ FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4625 10179 4623 10124 4594 10135 4594 10184
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 198DEG 15KT 4602 10164

HEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1249 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     HAIL             BUCYRUS                 46.06N 102.79W
07/11/2016  E2.50 INCH       ADAMS              ND   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
117 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 AM     HAIL             LINTON                  46.27N 100.23W
07/11/2016  E2.00 INCH       EMMONS             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL STARTED AT AROUND 107 AM...WITH AN ISOLATED 2 INCH
            HAILSTONE FALLING AT 112 AM.

&&

JJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
140 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

NDZ046-047-050-110715-
MCINTOSH ND-LOGAN ND-EMMONS ND-
140 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOGAN...NORTHERN
MCINTOSH AND NORTHERN EMMONS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 140 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LEHR TO 6 MILES EAST OF PRAIRIE KNIGHTS
RESORT. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINTON...NAPOLEON...WISHEK...GACKLE...HAZELTON...LEHR...BRADDOCK...
BEAVER LAKE STATE PARK...KINTYRE...HAZELTON RECREATION AREA...
BURNSTAD...TEMVIK AND GREEN LAKE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4620 10053 4652 10056 4653 10054 4664 10057
      4663 9907 4617 9916
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 180DEG 18KT 4630 9930 4630 10051

CJS