Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Bismarck, ND

124 
WWUS53 KBIS 102321
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
521 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDC033-102325-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-160710T2345Z/
GOLDEN VALLEY ND-
521 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL GOLDEN VALLEY
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4636 10348 4660 10335 4689 10359 4712 10320
      4637 10245 4606 10325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 223DEG 28KT 4702 10347 4677 10295 4624 10322 

$$

NDC001-007-011-041-087-089-102345-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-160710T2345Z/
BOWMAN ND-HETTINGER ND-SLOPE ND-STARK ND-BILLINGS ND-ADAMS ND-
521 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BOWMAN...WESTERN HETTINGER...EASTERN SLOPE...WESTERN
STARK...SOUTHERN BILLINGS AND NORTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 515 PM MDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF MEDORA TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH
HEART TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SCRANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AS HIGH AS 75 MPH
AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. THERE WAS A LOT OF LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.
THE RAIN WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS, CULVERTS, DITCHES,
AND CREEKS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORMS...GET TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.

HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...PUBLIC. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. 
         EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
         SIDING...AND VEHICLES. 

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THE STORMS ARE SCRANTON...NEW
ENGLAND...REGENT AND SOUTH HEART.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4636 10348 4660 10335 4689 10359 4712 10320
      4637 10245 4606 10325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 223DEG 28KT 4702 10347 4677 10295 4624 10322 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JPM/KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
431 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Update to cancel the heat advisory for the southern James river
valley. Clouds kept temperatures from rising into the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Robust upper level low across the northwest Conus will move
east and approach the northern plains this period. A line of
thunderstorms has formed along a cold frontal boundary in eastern
Montana and southwest North Dakota. To the east warm and humid air
will push the heat index above 100 south central early this
evening.

Overnight it appears the threat for thunderstorms will be highest
across the north and west with lower pops south central where it
will take longer to erode the elevated mixed layer and cap.
The threat for severe weather will however extend south to the
south dakota border as the cape and shear are very favorable.
Precipitable water will support some heavy rain potential across
portions of northwest north dakota this evening and possibly east
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Main concerns in the long term will be an anomalous h500 low
forecast to move across northern north dakota into southern canada
by wednesday. Global models look consistent in bringing strong
wrap around winds monday evening and overnight into tuesday
morning. Bufkit soundings show strong wind potential with wind
advisory criteria likely met with a low end warning criteria not
out if the question southwest monday night into tuesday.

will not issue wind headlines yet but will highlight in the
hazardous weather outlook.

the remainder of teh week will be cooler behind the upper upper
low however with a Northwest flow regime there will be at least
chances for thunderstorms through sunday.

&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

A trough of low pressure from Saskatchewan to a surface low
pressure system across northwest South Dakota will be the focus
for thunderstorms tonight across west and central North Dakota.
Hazards to aviation will focus on thunderstorms...some likely
severe with strong winds. Too uncertain in timing so maintained
the vicinity descriptor. Also left out strong winds until closer
to the thunderstorm period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

A trough of low pressure from Saskatchewan to a surface low
pressure system across northwest South Dakota will be the focus
for thunderstorms tonight across west and central North Dakota.
Hazards to aviation will focus on thunderstorms...some likely
severe with strong winds. Too uncertain in timing so maintained
the vicinity descriptor. Also left out strong winds until closer
to the thunderstorm period.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ045-
046.

&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-111445-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
940 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 /840 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND FAR SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 107 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
456 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 ENE PRETTY BUTTE      46.42N 103.86W
07/10/2016  U60 MPH          SLOPE              ND   PUBLIC

            .

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
504 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             6 SW KILLDEER           47.32N 102.85W
07/10/2016  E1.75 INCH       DUNN               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL LASTED THROUGH 457 PM CDT

&&

MMATHEWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
511 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             3 N MANNING             47.27N 102.77W
07/10/2016  E1.75 INCH       DUNN               ND   PUBLIC

            ONGOING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

0500 PM     HAIL             KILLDEER                47.37N 102.75W
07/10/2016  M3.00 INCH       DUNN               ND   PUBLIC

            MEASURED 3.25 INCH HAIL AND ONGOING. WINDOWS
            BROKEN.

0427 PM     HAIL             8 NE FAIRFIELD          47.27N 103.10W
07/10/2016  M1.50 INCH       BILLINGS           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL FOR 10 MINUTES.
            OCCURRED FROM 427PM CDT AND 437PM CDT.

&&

NWS BISMARCK ND
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
518 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ017-102300-
MCKENZIE ND-
518 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM CDT/500 PM MDT/...

AT 517 PM CDT/417 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SIDNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WATFORD CITY...ALEXANDER...ARNEGARD...SATHER DAM AND RAWSON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT/900
PM MDT/ FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4749 10388 4764 10403 4797 10343 4766 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 235DEG 28KT 4762 10384

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
528 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KILLDEER                47.37N 102.75W
07/10/2016                   DUNN               ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDOW BROKEN IN PATROL PASSENGER VEHICLE.
            TREES DOWN WITH LOTS OF DAMAGES TO TRAILERS
            AND HOUSES DUE TO WIND DRIVEN HAIL. DAMAGE
            IS ONGOING.

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
553 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             AMIDON                  46.48N 103.32W
07/10/2016  E1.50 INCH       SLOPE              ND   PUBLIC

            GROUND COVERED IN HAIL.

&&

MM