Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
841 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued at 841 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Quick update for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366. Another update
will be issued within the next 75 minutes for updates to weather
grid elements.

UPDATE Issued at 527 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Quick update to account for temperatures running higher than
forecast across the far south central and southwest ND, where
there are some mid/upper 90s per last hours obs. Otherwise, no
other changes. Convection has continued to be limited to northeast
of our CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Active period expected with severe storm threats as well as high
apparent temps on Sunday. Convection has moved out of our
southeast region with mostly sunny skies across the region. SPC
continues to place us in slight risk area for severe in the Day 1
outlook. High res models have waffled a bit during the day and
trended away from mid-afternoon development. Latest SPC meso
analysis page shows axis of 3000 to 4000 J/KG of CAPE extending
northward through western ND, approximately centered from Dickinson
to Williston along with substantial shear from 0 to 6 km level of
40 to 50 knots. Substantial capping in place as well with warm
base of elevated mixed layer inhibiting initiation and as noted in
SPC discussion, no significant large scale forcing with the parent
upper low well to the west. Operational HRRR still tries to
generate convection across the northeast and have maintained low
pops in place for this. In fact, have just seen a couple cells pop
up in Wells county. There also seems to be some general agreement
among the high res models for convection spreading into western ND
after 00z.

Therefore, expecting convection to continue overnight with support
of strengthening low level jet, which leads into Sunday where the
effects of better large scale forcing associated with the upper
low approaching from the west will increase. The entire state
remains in a slight risk of severe, with an enhanced risk along
and north of I-94. See day 2 outlook from SPC for details, but
expect storms to spread into ND from Montana by later
afternoon/evening with all modes of severe weather possible. GFS
maximizes sig tor parameter over northcentral and northeast parts
of our CWA after 21z Sunday.

With regard to heat, we will issue a heat advisory for parts of
south central and southeast ND on Sunday, from Sioux County
eastward to LaMoure and Dickey. High temps in the mid/upper 90s
combined with dew points in the mid/upper 60 will result in
apparent temperatures reaching the 100 to 105 degree range during
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Precipitation will likely be slow to exit the region as deep upper
low only reaches eastern Montana by 12z Monday. Upper low then
progresses to just north of the state by 12z Tuesday, continuing
to support unsettled weather. This will lead to strong winds on
Monday night and particularly on Tuesday, where at least a wind
advisory for a portion of the area will likely be needed.
Following Sunday's heat, temperatures will run close to normal for
the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

VFR conditions forecast through the period. However, a more active
pattern will develop later today and continue through Sunday. Some
uncertainty exists about timing and coverage for thunderstorms,
so did not include VCTS for TAFs, except for KJMS this evening.
Any storms that develop this afternoon or evening will have the
potential to turn severe.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
Sunday for NDZ045>048-050-051.

&&

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
445 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

NDZ045>048-050-051-102145-
SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
445 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 /345 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY IS EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES EXPECTED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>044-102145-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-
445 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016 /345 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...MAINLY WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

JNS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
909 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             1 NE CARRINGTON         47.46N 99.12W
07/09/2016  U1.00 INCH       FOSTER             ND   PUBLIC

            40 MPH WINDS ALSO REPORTED.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
922 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 S CARRINGTON          47.40N  99.12W
07/09/2016                   FOSTER             ND   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

NHEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     BREIEN                  46.38N 100.94W
07/09/2016  E60 MPH          MORTON             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS GUSTED NEAR 60 THROUGH 950 PM CDT

&&

MMATHEWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1007 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 NE WOODWORTH          47.21N  99.20W
07/09/2016                   STUTSMAN           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTT REPORTED A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD THAT
            LASTED ABOUT A MINUTE.

&&

HAMILTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1014 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 ENE BREIEN            46.42N 100.82W
07/09/2016  E60 MPH          MORTON             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS STARTED AROUND 945 AND LASTED THROUGH 10 PM. PEA
            SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED

&&

MMATHEWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1019 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

NDZ036-046-047-050-100400-
MCINTOSH-LOGAN-EMMONS-KIDDER-
1019 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL KIDDER...
WESTERN LOGAN...WESTERN MCINTOSH AND EMMONS COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM
CDT...

AT 1017 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HAZELTON TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF THE NORTH
AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINTON...NAPOLEON...WISHEK...STRASBURG...HAZELTON...
BEAVER LAKE STATE PARK...KINTYRE...AND GREEN LAKE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4617 10045 4631 10044 4647 10040 4674 9966
      4646 9949 4594 9939 4594 10043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0317Z 257DEG 35KT 4650 10030 4634 10029 4620 10026
4596 10021

MATHEWS