Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Bismarck, ND

377 
WWUS53 KBIS 100611
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1211 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDC007-025-089-100700-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0117.000000T0000Z-160710T0700Z/
STARK ND-BILLINGS ND-DUNN ND-
1211 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT
FOR NORTHERN STARK...EAST CENTRAL BILLINGS AND SOUTHERN DUNN
COUNTIES...

AT 1210 AM MDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF MANNING TO NEAR SOUTH HEART...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DICKINSON AROUND 1210 AM MDT.
  MANNING AROUND 1215 AM MDT. 
  KILLDEER AROUND 1225 AM MDT. 
  DUNN CENTER AROUND 1230 AM MDT. 
  HALLIDAY AROUND 1245 AM MDT. 
  MARSHALL AROUND 1250 AM MDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE TWIN
BUTTES...HIRSCHVILLE AND NEW HRADEC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING. THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT
PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 4760 10223 4733 10221 4733 10219 4684 10212
      4679 10306 4725 10308
TIME...MOT...LOC 0610Z 238DEG 41KT 4725 10292 4689 10292 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

HAMILTON

252 
WWUS53 KBIS 100626
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDC007-025-089-100700-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0117.000000T0000Z-160710T0700Z/
STARK ND-BILLINGS ND-DUNN ND-
1226 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT
FOR NORTHERN STARK...EAST CENTRAL BILLINGS AND SOUTHERN DUNN
COUNTIES...

AT 1225 AM MDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR DUNN CENTER TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANNING TO
NEAR GLADSTONE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.

HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. 
         EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DUNN CENTER AROUND 1230 AM MDT. 
  TAYLOR AROUND 1235 AM MDT. 
  RICHARDTON...HALLIDAY AND MARSHALL AROUND 1240 AM MDT. 
  DODGE AROUND 1245 AM MDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE TWIN
BUTTES...HIRSCHVILLE AND NEW HRADEC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS NORTHERN STARK AND SOUTHERN DUNN COUNTIES. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
 
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
A BUILDING. THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT
PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 4760 10223 4733 10221 4733 10219 4684 10212
      4679 10306 4725 10308
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 249DEG 46KT 4730 10262 4709 10262 4685 10262 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

HAMILTON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1244 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Trimmed off several counties from the watch with associated
convection now well over southeastern ND. Another line of storms
over western ND will continue east-northeast during the
overnight. Strong to severe convection still possible, though none
at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Concentrated categorical pops south central and southeast this
evening, with increasing chances west into central overnight. No
changes to the Severe Thunderstorm Watch with this forecast
issuance.

Thunderstorm complexes being maintained by a strong Low Level Jet
(LLJ) across far south central ND and the James River Valley will
persist as they move east and south respectively through 05-06Z,
before they push out of my southeastern counties as the LLJ shifts
eastward.

Convection across eastern MT will move into western ND over the
next 2-3 hours and likely persist through the overnight as they
track east across the state. Strong to severe storms remain
possible given strong forcing aloft.

UPDATE
Issued at 841 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Quick update for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366. Another update
will be issued within the next 75 minutes for updates to weather
grid elements.

UPDATE Issued at 527 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Quick update to account for temperatures running higher than
forecast across the far south central and southwest ND, where
there are some mid/upper 90s per last hours obs. Otherwise, no
other changes. Convection has continued to be limited to northeast
of our CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Active period expected with severe storm threats as well as high
apparent temps on Sunday. Convection has moved out of our
southeast region with mostly sunny skies across the region. SPC
continues to place us in slight risk area for severe in the Day 1
outlook. High res models have waffled a bit during the day and
trended away from mid-afternoon development. Latest SPC meso
analysis page shows axis of 3000 to 4000 J/KG of CAPE extending
northward through western ND, approximately centered from Dickinson
to Williston along with substantial shear from 0 to 6 km level of
40 to 50 knots. Substantial capping in place as well with warm
base of elevated mixed layer inhibiting initiation and as noted in
SPC discussion, no significant large scale forcing with the parent
upper low well to the west. Operational HRRR still tries to
generate convection across the northeast and have maintained low
pops in place for this. In fact, have just seen a couple cells pop
up in Wells county. There also seems to be some general agreement
among the high res models for convection spreading into western ND
after 00z.

Therefore, expecting convection to continue overnight with support
of strengthening low level jet, which leads into Sunday where the
effects of better large scale forcing associated with the upper
low approaching from the west will increase. The entire state
remains in a slight risk of severe, with an enhanced risk along
and north of I-94. See day 2 outlook from SPC for details, but
expect storms to spread into ND from Montana by later
afternoon/evening with all modes of severe weather possible. GFS
maximizes sig tor parameter over northcentral and northeast parts
of our CWA after 21z Sunday.

With regard to heat, we will issue a heat advisory for parts of
south central and southeast ND on Sunday, from Sioux County
eastward to LaMoure and Dickey. High temps in the mid/upper 90s
combined with dew points in the mid/upper 60 will result in
apparent temperatures reaching the 100 to 105 degree range during
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2016

Precipitation will likely be slow to exit the region as deep upper
low only reaches eastern Montana by 12z Monday. Upper low then
progresses to just north of the state by 12z Tuesday, continuing
to support unsettled weather. This will lead to strong winds on
Monday night and particularly on Tuesday, where at least a wind
advisory for a portion of the area will likely be needed.
Following Sunday's heat, temperatures will run close to normal for
the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Overall VFR conditions forecast for the 06Z TAF period. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms expected through the period. Any
thunderstorms which impact terminals may result in IFR conditions
or lower for a brief period. Uncertainty exists about timing and
coverage for thunderstorms, so will amend TAFs as needed. Another
round of storms expected Sunday afternoon and evening, especially
for western and north central ND, including KDIK-KISN-KMOT.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM
CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ045>048-050-051.

&&

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-110545-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1239 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 /1139 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...MAINLY WEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL. VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

NH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1041 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

NDZ017-031-032-040-100530-
MCKENZIE-BILLINGS-GOLDEN VALLEY-SLOPE-
1041 PM MDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN SLOPE...GOLDEN
VALLEY...WESTERN BILLINGS AND SOUTHWESTERN MCKENZIE COUNTIES UNTIL
1130 PM MDT...

AT 1040 PM MDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF WIBAUX TO BAKER.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEACH...MARMARTH...MEDORA...GOLVA...SENTINEL BUTTE...TROTTERS...
PRETTY BUTTE...ALPHA AND THREE V CROSSING.

LAT...LON 4737 10404 4752 10339 4637 10334 4628 10392
      4628 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 231DEG 20KT 4706 10403 4638 10417

MATHEWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

NDZ036-037-047-048-050-051-100545-
STUTSMAN ND-DICKEY ND-MCINTOSH ND-LA MOURE ND-LOGAN ND-KIDDER ND-
1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL KIDDER...
STUTSMAN...DICKEY...EASTERN LOGAN...LAMOURE AND EASTERN MCINTOSH
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1145 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF WOODWORTH TO 6 MILES
SOUTH OF JUD TO NEAR SPRING CREEK COLONY. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 50
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAMESTOWN...OAKES...ELLENDALE...EDGELEY...MEDINA...LAMOURE...KULM...
GACKLE...TAPPEN...STREETER...MARION...YPSILANTI...BUCHANAN...
SPIRITWOOD LAKE...MONTPELIER...CLEVELAND...SPIRITWOOD AND JUD.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4594 9921 4642 9922 4711 9989 4719 9847
      4700 9847 4695 9844 4663 9844 4663 9804
      4662 9803 4594 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 261DEG 42KT 4717 9914 4643 9885 4596 9888

SCHILD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1208 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HAIL             1 SSW JAMESTOWN         46.90N 98.72W
07/09/2016  M1.00 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1213 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW LINTON            46.22N 100.25W
07/09/2016  M67 MPH          EMMONS             ND   AWOS

            AWOS STATION 3 SSW LINTON /7L2/.

&&

MM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ017-018-032-033-100630-
STARK ND-MCKENZIE ND-BILLINGS ND-DUNN ND-
1233 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN STARK...
BILLINGS...SOUTHWESTERN DUNN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MCKENZIE COUNTIES
UNTIL 130 AM CDT/1230 AM MDT/...

AT 1232 AM CDT/1132 PM MDT/...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRASSY BUTTE TO 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF AMIDON. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KILLDEER...BELFIELD...SOUTH HEART...MEDORA...MANNING...GRASSY
BUTTE...FAIRFIELD...FRYBURG...OAKDALE AND NEW HRADEC.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4738 10345 4757 10261 4711 10268 4700 10283
      4664 10289 4663 10360 4665 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 260DEG 24KT 4732 10337 4668 10345

HAMILTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ047-048-050-051-100745-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NAPOLEON...GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...
KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...ELLENDALE
1247 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS BEHIND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...

WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
THESE STRONG WINDS MAY LAST UP TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE
STORMS PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

NH