Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Bismarck, ND

183 
WWUS53 KBIS 102157
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
457 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDC025-102245-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-160710T2245Z/
DUNN ND-
457 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM
CDT/445 PM MDT/ FOR DUNN COUNTY...

AT 456 PM CDT/356 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
DUNN CENTER...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KILLDEER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DUNN CENTER AROUND 400 PM MDT. 
  HALLIDAY AROUND 420 PM MDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE OAKDALE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING OF STREETS, DITCHES, AND CREEKS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4777 10235 4713 10219 4702 10301 4713 10303
      4733 10303 4733 10308 4746 10310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 247DEG 30KT 4730 10266 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JP MARTIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
431 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Update to cancel the heat advisory for the southern James river
valley. Clouds kept temperatures from rising into the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Robust upper level low across the northwest Conus will move
east and approach the northern plains this period. A line of
thunderstorms has formed along a cold frontal boundary in eastern
Montana and southwest North Dakota. To the east warm and humid air
will push the heat index above 100 south central early this
evening.

Overnight it appears the threat for thunderstorms will be highest
across the north and west with lower pops south central where it
will take longer to erode the elevated mixed layer and cap.
The threat for severe weather will however extend south to the
south dakota border as the cape and shear are very favorable.
Precipitable water will support some heavy rain potential across
portions of northwest north dakota this evening and possibly east
late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

Main concerns in the long term will be an anomalous h500 low
forecast to move across northern north dakota into southern canada
by wednesday. Global models look consistent in bringing strong
wrap around winds monday evening and overnight into tuesday
morning. Bufkit soundings show strong wind potential with wind
advisory criteria likely met with a low end warning criteria not
out if the question southwest monday night into tuesday.

will not issue wind headlines yet but will highlight in the
hazardous weather outlook.

the remainder of teh week will be cooler behind the upper upper
low however with a Northwest flow regime there will be at least
chances for thunderstorms through sunday.

&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

A trough of low pressure from Saskatchewan to a surface low
pressure system across northwest South Dakota will be the focus
for thunderstorms tonight across west and central North Dakota.
Hazards to aviation will focus on thunderstorms...some likely
severe with strong winds. Too uncertain in timing so maintained
the vicinity descriptor. Also left out strong winds until closer
to the thunderstorm period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

A trough of low pressure from Saskatchewan to a surface low
pressure system across northwest South Dakota will be the focus
for thunderstorms tonight across west and central North Dakota.
Hazards to aviation will focus on thunderstorms...some likely
severe with strong winds. Too uncertain in timing so maintained
the vicinity descriptor. Also left out strong winds until closer
to the thunderstorm period.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ045-
046.

&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-111445-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
940 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016 /840 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND FAR SOUTHEAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 107 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     TSTM WND GST     DICKINSON               46.88N 102.79W
07/10/2016  M85 MPH          STARK              ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF DICKINSON OF
            NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED AND OTHERS UPROOTED.
            A CAMPER WAS FLIPPED OVER. PERSON HAD A
            HAND-HELD ANEMOMETER (WIND EQUIPMENT).
            LENGTH OF EVENT UNKNOWN.

0110 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 S DICKINSON           46.79N 102.80W
07/10/2016  M76 MPH          STARK              ND   ASOS

            ALL TIMES ARE CENTRAL DAYLIGHT. KDIK ASOS
            PEAK WIND OF THE EVENT WAS 76 MPH. BASED ON
            ASOS ONE-MINUTE DATA THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
            WIND STARTED AT 1251 AM AND CONTINUED UNTIL
            123 AM. (58 MPH OR HIGHER).

&&

NWS BISMARCK ND
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
122 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NDZ031-102000-
GOLDEN VALLEY ND-
122 PM MDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY UNTIL 200
PM MDT...

AT 122 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CARLYLE...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEACH...GOLVA...SENTINEL BUTTE AND ALPHA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4717 10404 4716 10370 4661 10380 4664 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 191DEG 32KT 4670 10405

ABELING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
417 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             3 SW FAIRFIELD          47.16N 103.27W
07/10/2016  E1.25 INCH       BILLINGS           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAIN ALSO. HAIL AND RAIN ONGOING.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
422 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             3 N FAIRFIELD           47.24N 103.22W
07/10/2016  E1.75 INCH       BILLINGS           ND   PUBLIC

            WINDOWS WERE BREAKING FROM HAIL AND WIND.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
425 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N FAIRFIELD           47.24N 103.22W
07/10/2016  E70 MPH          BILLINGS           ND   PUBLIC

            WIND AND HAIL WERE BREAKING WINDOWS.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
435 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             4 S SOUTH FAIRFIELD     47.07N 103.20W
07/10/2016  U1.00 INCH       BILLINGS           ND   PUBLIC

            .

&&

MM