Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310

Issued

May 28, 2012, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)

Expired

May 29, 2012, 12:00 AM CDT

In force

8 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

3 in

Strongest gust expected

70 kt

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

50%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

50%

Ten or more severe hail reports

80%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

50%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

80%

• Mesoscale Discussion 941May 28, 2:54 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 944May 28, 6:14 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 948May 28, 7:44 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 949May 28, 9:35 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 950May 28, 9:51 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 952May 28, 11:25 PM CDT

607 
WWUS20 KWNS 282049
SEL0
SPC WW 282049
OKZ000-TXZ000-290500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 310
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
       NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 350 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF BIG
SPRING TEXAS TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT SILL OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 308...WW 309...

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS EXTENDING SWWD INTO FAR SE NM. TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE
CAPPING INVERSION IS NOW GONE AND A FIELD OF CUMULUS IS GROWING ON
THE NWRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...INITIATING
STORMS IN THE 2030Z TO 2130Z TIMEFRAME BETWEEN MIDLAND AND LUBBOCK
WITH CONVECTION EXPANDING NEWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX
AND INTO SW OK. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS WCNTRL TX SHOW 30 TO 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TOWARD EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. THIS ALONG WITH THE PRISTINE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
MAY ENABLE THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS TO HAVE HAIL GREATER THAN 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP AS THE CELLS MATURE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...CARBIN/BROYLES

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.