Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Fort Worth, TX

443 
WWUS54 KFWD 290151
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
851 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

TXC133-143-363-429-290230-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-120529T0230Z/
EASTLAND TX-ERATH TX-PALO PINTO TX-STEPHENS TX-
851 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN STEPHENS...PALO PINTO...NORTHERN ERATH AND EASTLAND
COUNTIES...

AT 850 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES 
WEST OF STRAWN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 
TREES BLOWN DOWN BETWEEN BRECKENRIDGE AND CRYSTAL FALLS. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STRAWN AROUND 855 PM CDT...
  MINGUS AROUND 900 PM CDT...
  GORDON AROUND 905 PM CDT...
  HUCKABAY AND GRAFORD AROUND 910 PM CDT...
  MORGAN MILL AROUND 920 PM CDT...
  MINERAL WELLS AROUND 925 PM CDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 327 AND 383.

LAT...LON 3243 9902 3261 9874 3296 9880 3295 9844
      3299 9843 3301 9806 3250 9807 3238 9802
      3231 9848 3209 9892 3208 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 274DEG 39KT 3255 9854

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
804 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE SEVERE WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD A ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. CONVECTION
HAS INDEED ORGANIZED INTO A LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
STRONG WINDS. OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD DIMINISH
GIVEN THE DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING...INCREASING
CIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES...AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AVAILABLE. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORMS...MVFR CIGS AT WACO.

THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF FWD
CWA. ALTHOUGH STORMS INITIALLY HAD AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...CELLS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TURNING RIGHT TOWARD MOIST INFLOW. MEAN FLOW
WOULD SUGGEST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. INSTABILITY DECREASES
TOWARD THE METROPLEX...AND THE STORMS WILL SOON BE INGESTING A
POST-SUNSET BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM THIS EVENING...BUT STORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...REACHING THE METROPLEX LATE EVENING TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. WILD CARD WILL BE A RATHER INNOCUOUS SHORTWAVE NOW IN
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO (EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY)...WHICH MAY
APPROACH NORTH TEXAS AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. FOR NOW...
HAVE LIMITED VCTS/CB TO 04-06Z (11PM-1AM CDT) TIME FRAME. WILL
ASSESS FURTHER WITH 03Z AMENDMENTS.

TUESDAY...
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL FORGO INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WACO...
STORMS WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH. STRATUS EXPECTED TO INVADE
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS TOWARD DAWN...LIKELY REACHING WACO BEFORE
SUNRISE. IN LATE MAY WARMTH...PAPER THIN LAYER SHOULD EFFECTIVELY
MIX OUT BY 14Z (9AM CDT).

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
CUMULUS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
BOWIE TO BRECKENRIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY IS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHEAST...AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE TREKKING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
HOWEVER A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEVELOPING CU FIELD.

WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST WITH 500MB WINDS AROUND 30 KTS
INCREASING TO 50 KTS AT 300 MB. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH
PWS INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF AND SB CAPE NEAR 3000
J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
COVERAGE MAY NOT INITIALLY BE ALL THAT HIGH...BUT COULD QUICKLY
INCREASE WITH TIME ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT CELL MERGERS OCCUR...A
SMALL COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED.
STORM MOTION TO THE EAST WOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGER CAPPING
INVERSION FARTHER TO THE EAST. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND TAPER THEM OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG A SULPHUR SPRINGS TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE.

UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DURING THE DAY...BUT MAY THEN
SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AN IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEEPENING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY ALL
THE WAY TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  93  74  92  73 /  30  10  20  10  30
WACO, TX              72  92  72  91  74 /  10   5  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             72  90  70  89  70 /  20  20  30  20  50
DENTON, TX            72  93  71  92  72 /  40  20  30  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          71  93  71  91  73 /  20  20  30  20  40
DALLAS, TX            75  93  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  10  30
TERRELL, TX           72  94  71  91  72 /  20  10  20  10  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  72  91  73 /  10   5  10  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  71  91  73 /  10   5   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  93  70  92  71 /  40  20  20  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
810 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY
NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TOWARD THE RED RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO GLEN ROSE...TO GAINESVILLE.

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
754 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

TXZ115-129-290130-
EASTLAND TX-STEPHENS TX-
754 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN EASTLAND COUNTY
  WESTERN STEPHENS COUNTY

AT 755 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES WEST OF
BRECKENRIDGE TO 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF CISCO TO 24 MILES WEST OF
CISCO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BRECKENRIDGE...CISCO...
EASTLAND...GUNSIGHT AND NECESSITY.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3251 9912 3252 9910 3282 9911 3290 9875
      3246 9877 3211 9904 3212 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 269DEG 19KT 3271 9916 3248 9916
          3225 9934

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
806 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

TXZ091-290130-
MONTAGUE TX-
806 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 806 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NOCONA TO 10 MILES WEST OF BOWIE TO 17 MILES WEST OF BOWIE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BOWIE...NOCONA...ST. JO...
FORESTBURG AND STONEBURG.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3399 9763 3395 9758 3391 9759 3390 9755
      3392 9749 3344 9749 3343 9798 3388 9798
      3389 9794 3386 9788 3386 9783 3392 9779
      3395 9773 3400 9768
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 271DEG 31KT 3387 9774 3360 9796
          3350 9810