Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Fort Worth, TX

105 
WWUS54 KFWD 290046
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
746 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

TXC237-503-290115-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-120529T0115Z/
JACK TX-YOUNG TX-
746 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR YOUNG AND NORTHERN JACK COUNTIES...

AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 34 MILES NORTH OF JACKSBORO TO 23
MILES NORTH OF JACKSBORO TO 5 MILES EAST OF OLNEY TO 16 MILES WEST OF
NEWCASTLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE OUTFLOW WINDS ARE 
PRECEDING THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST STORM CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF ELBERT IN THROCKMORTON 
COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS WESTERN YOUNG COUNTY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  NEWCASTLE AROUND 815 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3341 9895 3340 9843 3348 9842 3347 9798
      3343 9798 3343 9792 3332 9792 3307 9842
      3295 9842 3296 9896 3334 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 296DEG 19KT 3371 9818 3354 9828
          3335 9868 3326 9901

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORMS...MVFR CIGS AT WACO.

THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF FWD
CWA. ALTHOUGH STORMS INITIALLY HAD AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...CELLS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TURNING RIGHT TOWARD MOIST INFLOW. MEAN FLOW
WOULD SUGGEST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. INSTABILITY DECREASES
TOWARD THE METROPLEX...AND THE STORMS WILL SOON BE INGESTING A
POST-SUNSET BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM THIS EVENING...BUT STORMS WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...REACHING THE METROPLEX LATE EVENING TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. WILD CARD WILL BE A RATHER INNOCUOUS SHORTWAVE NOW IN
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO (EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY)...WHICH MAY
APPROACH NORTH TEXAS AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER. FOR NOW...
HAVE LIMITED VCTS/CB TO 04-06Z (11PM-1AM CDT) TIME FRAME. WILL
ASSESS FURTHER WITH 03Z AMENDMENTS.

TUESDAY...
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL FORGO INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WACO...
STORMS WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH. STRATUS EXPECTED TO INVADE
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS TOWARD DAWN...LIKELY REACHING WACO BEFORE
SUNRISE. IN LATE MAY WARMTH...PAPER THIN LAYER SHOULD EFFECTIVELY
MIX OUT BY 14Z (9AM CDT).

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/
CUMULUS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
BOWIE TO BRECKENRIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY IS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHEAST...AS
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE TREKKING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
HOWEVER A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIKELY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEVELOPING CU FIELD.

WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST WITH 500MB WINDS AROUND 30 KTS
INCREASING TO 50 KTS AT 300 MB. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH
PWS INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF AND SB CAPE NEAR 3000
J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
COVERAGE MAY NOT INITIALLY BE ALL THAT HIGH...BUT COULD QUICKLY
INCREASE WITH TIME ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT CELL MERGERS OCCUR...A
SMALL COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED.
STORM MOTION TO THE EAST WOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGER CAPPING
INVERSION FARTHER TO THE EAST. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND TAPER THEM OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG A SULPHUR SPRINGS TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE.

UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DURING THE DAY...BUT MAY THEN
SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AFFECTING THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AN IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEEPENING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY ALL
THE WAY TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE BEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  93  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  10  30
WACO, TX              72  92  72  91  74 /  10   5  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             72  90  70  89  70 /  20  20  30  20  50
DENTON, TX            72  93  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          71  93  71  91  73 /  20  20  30  20  40
DALLAS, TX            75  93  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  10  30
TERRELL, TX           72  94  71  91  72 /  20  10  20  10  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  72  91  73 /  10   5  10  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  71  91  73 /  10   5   5  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  93  70  92  71 /  30  20  20  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/92

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
315 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A CISCO TO GAINESVILLE LINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HAZARDS FROM
THESE STORMS INCLUDES VERY LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE STORM THREAT WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AND EAST TO A GOLDTHWAITE...HILLSBORO...SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. A
WEAKENING TREND IN STORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
GENERALLY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TOWARD THE RED RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED NORTH AND WEST OF A
SHERMAN...TO DALLAS...TO HAMILTON LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

05/