Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 948
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2012, 7:44 PM CDT for 13 counties in Oklahoma; 24 counties in Texas. It was in force for 91 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2012, 7:44 PM CDT (00:44 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2012, 9:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 91 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 37 counties
Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Coal County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Murray County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Johnson County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Mills County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Wise County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 49 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1125 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -84 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1953 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 94 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.3
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
426
ACUS11 KWNS 290044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290044
TXZ000-OKZ000-290215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX...CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 290044Z - 290215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND A
NEW WW OR WATCH EXTENSIONS MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM. PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS W/NW TX IS BECOMING MORE
LINEAR AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A SEWD PROGRESSING MCS DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. OUN AND FWD 00Z SOUNDING INDICATE NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE
WILL NO CINH. SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX AND CNTRL OK.
30 TO 35 KT NWLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS...LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY...AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST LINEAR
ORGANIZATION OF A SEWD PROGRESSING MCS IS LIKELY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A HAIL THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ORGANIZED MCS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND INCREASING SBCINH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT LOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO.
FARTHER N /ACROSS CNTRL OK/...TSTM HAVE INITIATED ON AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE TSTMS NEAR THE RED RIVER. PREDOMINATELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SBCAPE GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG
OBSERVED ON THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING SUGGESTS SPLITTING STORMS WILL
CONTINUE WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
..MOSIER/HART.. 05/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 31599738 31020028 31490061 32189872 33629739 34729737
35569699 35549627 34399607 32299640 31599738SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 9:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Canadian, Creek, Kingfisher, Lincoln, Logan, Oklahoma and 2 more | 54 min |
| May 28, 11:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Craig, Nowata, Osage, Ottawa, Washington | 54 min |
| May 29, 3:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Beaver, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland and 28 more | 84 min |
| May 29, 3:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Atoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian and 38 more | 12 hr |
| May 29, 6:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 31 more | 88 min |
| May 28, 9:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Cooke, Denton and 16 more | 55 min |
| May 28, 11:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Coleman, Coryell, Dallas, Ellis and 10 more | 35 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.