Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 951

May 28, 20124 counties in Kansas; 18 counties in Missouri; 5 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2012, 11:06 PM CDT for 4 counties in Kansas; 18 counties in Missouri; 5 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 28, 2012, 11:06 PM CDT (04:06 UTC)
Expired
May 29, 2012, 12:00 AM CDT
In force
54 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 27 counties

Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Cole County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Osage County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Craig County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2012-05-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1923 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2012-05-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 40 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1923 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1564 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
76 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

712 
ACUS11 KWNS 290406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290406 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-290500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...EXTREME SERN KS THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 290406Z - 290500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN OK INTO SWRN AND CNTRL MO WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL THROUGH
06Z. DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION AND ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE
EVENTS...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED ALONG COLD FRONT
FROM NERN OK INTO CNTRL MO...AS WELL AS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
NERN OK. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND WITHIN A MODEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTING STORMS WILL
REMAIN ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BUT CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...NO
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LLJ...AND NARROW EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
AXIS...COVERAGE OF SEVERE EVENTS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SPARSE.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36919659 37519526 38739245 38459165 37769244 36489514
            36249638 36919659

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 29, 3:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Meade, Seward84 min
May 29, 3:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Harper, Meade, Sumner12 hr
May 29, 6:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Harper, Sumner88 min
May 28, 7:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBryan, Carter, Coal, Garvin, Hughes, Johnston and 7 more91 min
May 28, 9:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCanadian, Creek, Kingfisher, Lincoln, Logan, Oklahoma and 2 more54 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.