Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 963
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2012, 3:06 PM CDT for 5 counties in Kansas; 34 counties in Oklahoma; Hardeman County, Wichita County, Wilbarger County, Texas. It was in force for 84 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2012, 3:06 PM CDT (20:06 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2012, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 42 counties
Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Meade County, KS, Seward County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beaver County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Grant County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Major County, OK, McClain County, OK, Noble County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Hardeman County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX
The radar
The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 142 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 96 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -476 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1922 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 101 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 131 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
675
ACUS11 KWNS 292007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292006
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-292130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...WRN OK...NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 292006Z - 292130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW
KS...WCNTRL OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE LIKELY BY 2130Z.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB SFC LOW NEAR
CHILDRESS WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NORTH TX INTO WRN OK
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. WARMING SFC TEMPS ALONG
THE MOIST AXIS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MCD AREA. MESOANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE
VALUES ARE NOW IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE
CAPPING INVERSION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF WRN OK AND PARTS OF
SW KS WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AROUND 21Z.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE FAVORED ZONE FOR INITIATION
WILL BE FROM GAGE OK ARCHING SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND BACK SWWD INTO NW
TX WHERE SEVERAL FIELDS OF CUMULUS ARE BECOMING AGITATED ACCORDING
TO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS FROM SW KS INTO WRN
OK HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
FROM 1 KM TO 4 KM AGL. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CELL MERGERS
OCCUR...A SEVERE MCS APPEARS LIKELY. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY IF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE
SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS CNTRL OK.
..BROYLES/BUNTING/WEISS.. 05/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 33879825 33839937 33999986 34469983 35579942 36149976
36660068 37070104 37570048 37539950 37059802 36379702
36009677 35009682 34179734 33879825SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 11:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Montgomery | 54 min |
| May 29, 3:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Harper, Meade, Sumner | 12 hr |
| May 29, 6:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Harper, Sumner | 88 min |
| May 28, 7:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bryan, Carter, Coal, Garvin, Hughes, Johnston and 7 more | 91 min |
| May 28, 9:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Canadian, Creek, Kingfisher, Lincoln, Logan, Oklahoma and 2 more | 54 min |
| May 28, 9:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Cooke, Denton and 16 more | 55 min |
| May 28, 11:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Coleman, Coryell, Dallas, Ellis and 10 more | 35 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.