Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 941
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2012, 2:54 PM CDT for 6 counties in Oklahoma; 36 counties in Texas. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2012, 2:54 PM CDT (19:54 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2012, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 42 counties
Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Andrews County, TX, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Borden County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Ector County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Foard County, TX, Garza County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Howard County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX
The radar
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1975 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -143 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1079 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 117 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 126 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
817
ACUS11 KWNS 281955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281954
OKZ000-TXZ000-282130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST AND NORTHWEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 281954Z - 282130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THE STORMS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE CELLS BEGIN
TO INITIATE ACROSS WEST TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CHILDRESS EXTENDING SWWD INTO FAR SE NM. TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THE
CAPPING INVERSION IS NOW GONE AND A FIELD OF CUMULUS IS GROWING ON
THE NWRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...INITIATING
STORMS IN THE 2030Z TO 2130Z TIMEFRAME BETWEEN MIDLAND AND LUBBOCK
WITH CONVECTION EXPANDING NEWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX
AND INTO SW OK. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS WCNTRL TX SHOW 30 TO 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TOWARD EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. THIS ALONG WITH THE PRISTINE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
MAY ENABLE THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS TO HAVE HAIL GREATER THAN 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP AS THE CELLS MATURE.
..BROYLES.. 05/28/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 34089778 34649768 34909799 34999844 34869893 34020066
33340172 32560260 31660309 30700340 30260324 30220262
30500213 30930170 31660119 32679998 33149922 33519863
34089778SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 3:48 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 13 more | 8 hr |
| May 28, 6:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman | 91 min |
| May 27, 7:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Terrell | 53 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.