Mesoscale Discussion 944

Issued

May 28, 2012, 6:14 PM CDT (23:14 UTC)

Expired

May 28, 2012, 7:45 PM CDT

In force

91 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

172 
ACUS11 KWNS 282314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282314 
OKZ000-TXZ000-290045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN TX...FAR SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310...

VALID 282314Z - 290045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTMS WITH A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 310 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY
THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO WIND AS TSTMS ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE
LINE.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF A DRYLINE
LOCATED ALONG A SW TO NE LINE FROM FDR TO ODO. UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...AND MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG
EXISTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. AS SUCH...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. 23Z AREA PROFILER/VWP DATA DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPH WHICH SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPLIT. LATEST SFC
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF STORMS... ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RED RIVER AND FARTHER N INTO CNTRL OK. THIS MAY LEAD TO AN
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING.
LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH LCLS SHOULD KEEP THE
TORNADO THREAT LOW. 

BOTH AREAS OF ACTIVITY /NW TX AND W TX/ APPEAR TO BE CONSOLIDATING
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. NW TX ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN PROPAGATING SEWD
WHILE EWD PROPAGATING ACTIVITY IN THE W TX MAY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE.
CONSOLIDATION INTO A LINE WOULD ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE AND A DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO.

..MOSIER.. 05/28/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31340219 33080220 35299763 33559764 31340219

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.