Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADDED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO THE GRID AS WELL AS
UPDATE PRODUCTS FOR SVR WATCH 310.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/

SHORT TERM...

SFC FRONT HAS STALLED FROM PADUCAH TO WHITE RIVER LAKE TO TAHOKA AS
OF 1930Z WITH MODERATE CU DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY. MLCAPE IN WARM
SECTOR ON ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG. SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ON EITHER
SIDE OF BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE IN WAY OF CONVERGENCE NOTED ATTM ON OBJ
ANALYSIS. BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR >35KT STILL TO W OF DEEPENING
CU WHERE MODELS/OBSERVATION DATA SUGGEST A JET STREAK/SHRTWV MOVING
E FROM CENTRAL NM.

INGREDIENTS FOR DEEPER MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD COME IN LINE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES RESIDE.
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST WITH SOME ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS INCLUDING SPLITTING CELLS POSSIBLE. BEST COVERAGE APPEARS
TO OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING WITH RETREATING
DRYLINE/OUTFLOW WORKING WEST ONTO THE CAPROCK MID EVENING.
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY BE TOO GREAT FOR RENEWED STORMS CLOSER TO
LUBBOCK ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG CAP IN PLACE. MAIN THREATS OFF THE
CAPROCK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY...WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS AND SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER ALONG WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

LOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED STRONG W-E
DEWPOINT GRADIENT. DRYLINE SHOULD MIX FURTHER EAST ON TUE AS FLOW
REMAINS W/NW. RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPE
BUT WEAK WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ON
THE CAPROCK. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RETREAT WESTWARD PRIOR TO SUNRISE
FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. MIXING OF LOW
CLOUDS HOPEFULLY WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER OFF THE
CAPROCK WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS LATE AFTERNOON LIMITED TO FAR
EASTERN AREAS.

LONG TERM...

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE NWRLY FLOW AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WRN CONUS WED. THIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES SLIDING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE FIRST /AND WEAKER/
WILL EDGE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z THURS. WHILE THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE SURGES IN ANOTHER FRONTAL PUSH THRU THE FA BY MID
MORNING THURS. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NAM/GFS
SOLUTIONS IN HOW MUCH STRENGTH THE FRONT WILL HAVE. EITHER
WAY...PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NERN ZONES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...WEAK NWRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SHORTWAVE EDGES ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. COMBINE THIS WITH THE PROGGED
RETURN FLOW/LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT...THIS MAYBE THE NEXT PRECIP
CHANCE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE SILENT POPS FOR THE LATER HALF OF
THE FORECAST.

MEADOWS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  93  59  90  53 /  10   0  10  10  20
TULIA         61  96  62  95  58 /  10   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     56  99  61  95  61 /  20   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     57  99  58  94  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       63 100  60  97  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   57 100  60  93  63 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62 100  60  95  63 /  20   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     66  96  69 104  63 /  20  20  20  10  20
SPUR          68 101  66 101  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  98  70 102  68 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
427 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

TXZ032-282200-
COTTLE-
427 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COTTLE  COUNTY...

AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN COTTLE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3384 10016 3400 10022 3408 10005 3385 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 250DEG 16KT 3395 10008

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

TXZ038-044-282245-
KING-STONEWALL-
520 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STONEWALL  AND KING  COUNTIES...

AT 518 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES WEST OF GUTHRIE ALONG US HIGHWAY
82...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3333 10052 3384 10052 3383 10026 3329 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 268DEG 16KT 3362 10054

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

TXZ032-038-282315-
COTTLE-KING-
528 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR KING AND COTTLE COUNTIES...

AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COTTLE AND NORTHERN KING
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3370 10000 3379 10051 3406 10051 3413 10006
      3402 10005 3385 10005 3383 10004 3383 10002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 253DEG 19KT 3391 10037