Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 54

January 23, 201222 counties in Indiana; 71 counties in Kentucky; 20 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 23, 2012, 1:52 AM EST for 22 counties in Indiana; 71 counties in Kentucky; 20 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 113 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 23, 2012, 1:52 AM EST (06:52 UTC)
Expired
Jan 23, 2012, 3:45 AM EST
In force
113 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 113 counties

Bartholomew County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clark County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Washington County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bath County, KY, Boone County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Logan County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mason County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Meade County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Madison County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Warren County, OH

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2012-01-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2012-01-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 262 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
415 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
262 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
290 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

554 
ACUS11 KWNS 230652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230652 
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-230845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KY...SERN
INDIANA...SWRN/S-CENTRAL OH.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8...

VALID 230652Z - 230845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 8 CONTINUES.

WW MAY BE CLEARED FROM W-E...AS PRIMARY BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS
PASSES.  ADDITIONAL SVR WW MAY BE ISSUED WITHIN AN HOUR...DOWNSHEAR
ACROSS PARTS OF SERN INDIANA...SWRN OH AND CENTRAL/NRN KY.

PRIND SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IN FORM OF CONVECTIVE
WIND...AND WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA.  WARMING CLOUD TOP TRENDS ARE NOTED ON IR IMAGERY...HOWEVER
EVEN LOWER-TOPPED CONVECTION STILL MAY POSE DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL
GIVEN SUFFICIENTLY STG LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND AT LEAST NEUTRAL-WEAK
INSTABILITY ROOTED NEAR SFC.  E END OF SVR THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...AS
SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING OVER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY
1. STATIC STABILITY BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER IN MAGNITUDE AND
GREATER IN DEPTH WITH EWD EXTENT....YET
2. STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC ERODING GRADUALLY FROM SW IN PRESENCE OF
STG LOW-LEVEL WAA...WITH MUCAPE 200-600 J/KG ESTIMATED BASED ON FCST
SOUNDINGS.  STG WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN VWP JUST ABOVE SFC...E.G. 70-80
KT IN 1-3 KM AGL LAYER PER LVX VWP SAMPLE...WITH SVR MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO SFC POSSIBLE IN DOWNDRAFTS.

CONVECTION IS PROJECTED TO EXIT ERN PORTIONS WW AROUND 730Z-08Z
BASED ON PRESENT MOTION...WHICH MAY ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AS MORE
INTENSE MEAN FLOW MOVES OVER AREA AHEAD OF EJECTING MID-UPPER
TROUGH.

..EDWARDS.. 01/23/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   36648723 37948638 39228632 39528633 39968484 40208381
            39848300 39308268 38638299 37898361 36608457 36648723

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 22, 8:28 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCGibson, Pike, Posey, Spencer, Vanderburgh, Warrick5 hr
Jan 22, 9:25 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Benton, Boone, Brown, Carroll, Cass and 35 more2 hr
Jan 22, 11:49 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Brown, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Daviess and 24 more86 min
Jan 23, 12:34 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBartholomew, Brown, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Daviess and 15 more3 hr
Jan 23, 2:14 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDearborn, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland5 hr
Jan 22, 9:37 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Carlisle, Fulton, Hickman, McCracken83 min
Jan 23, 5:11 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBath, Bell, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott and 19 more64 min
Jan 23, 11:46 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBath, Boone, Bourbon, Bracken, Campbell, Clark and 18 more89 min
Jan 23, 3:26 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBelmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Harrison, Jefferson, Mahoning and 4 more94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.