Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 53
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 22, 2012, 10:49 PM CST for 8 counties in Illinois; 30 counties in Indiana; 32 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 22, 2012, 10:49 PM CST (04:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 23, 2012, 12:15 AM CST
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 70 counties
Clark County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Wabash County, IL, White County, IL, Bartholomew County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clark County, IN, Clay County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Greene County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Orange County, IN, Owen County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Scott County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Graves County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Logan County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Union County, KY, Warren County, KY, Webster County, KY
The radar
The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 233 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 517 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 337 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 371 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
591
ACUS11 KWNS 230449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230449
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-230615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KY...SERN IL...SRN IND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 6...
VALID 230449Z - 230615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 6 CONTINUES.
DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE AT/NEAR PEAK
ACROSS FAR WRN KY INTO SERN IL...WITH THIS THREAT EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL/ISOLATED WITH NERN EXTENT OVERNIGHT. A
DOWNSTREAM WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY.
500+ MILE QLCS EXTENDED FROM ERN IL S/SWWD INTO SERN AR AS OF 0445Z.
NRN PORTION OF THE LINE IS PROGRESSING E/NEWD AT 40-50 KT...WITH
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OF PEAK WIND GUSTS OBSERVED AT METARS WITHIN WW 6.
ALL OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE/MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE INTENSITY OF
THE LINE N OF THE KY/TN BORDER SHOULD BE AT/NEAR PEAK. DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO WANE AS THE LINE PUSHES ACROSS THE
NARROW/MEAGER SURFACE-BASED WARM SECTOR...AND WITH DIMINISHING
MID-LEVEL DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN MO SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. THIS
SCENARIO IS REFLECTED WELL IN SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OF
CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE. STILL...GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW /70 KT AT 1 KM AGL NOTED IN THE EVANSVILLE VWP/...AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY STILL EXIST DESPITE LITTLE IF
ANY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN IND INTO CNTRL KY.
..GRAMS.. 01/23/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 38398813 38778804 39188795 39468784 39518738 39158547
38988520 38748514 37458580 36728629 36698811 36528811
36528874 38398813SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 7:28 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 13 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 22, 8:25 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bond, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Coles and 21 more | 2 hr |
| Jan 22, 8:37 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Franklin, Hamilton, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson and 9 more | 83 min |
| Jan 22, 11:34 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bartholomew, Brown, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Daviess and 15 more | 3 hr |
| Jan 23, 12:52 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bartholomew, Brown, Clark, Dearborn, Decatur, Fayette and 16 more | 113 min |
| Jan 23, 1:14 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dearborn, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland | 5 hr |
| Jan 23, 4:11 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bath, Bell, Breathitt, Carter, Clay, Elliott and 19 more | 64 min |
| Jan 23, 10:46 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bath, Boone, Bourbon, Bracken, Campbell, Clark and 18 more | 89 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.