Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 531

April 14, 201239 counties in Kansas; 16 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 14, 2012, 3:48 PM CDT for 39 counties in Kansas; 16 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 14, 2012, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)
Expired
Apr 14, 2012, 4:45 PM CDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 59 counties

Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Ford County, KS, Graham County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Ness County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Republic County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Smith County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Trego County, KS, Washington County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Collingsworth County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2012-04-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1516 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2012-04-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 413 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1516 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-96 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
527 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
413 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
432 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
11.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

009 
ACUS11 KWNS 142049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142048
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-142145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN KS...WRN OK...FAR ERN SECTIONS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 142048Z - 142145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

THE SVR THREAT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DISTRIBUTED
WITHIN 3 SPATIAL REGIMES:

1. DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM EDWARDS COUNTY KS
SWD TO WOODWARD COUNTY OK WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG
TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD/ENEWD AMIDST
STRONG INSTABILITY. HILLSBORO/HAVILAND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 0-1-KM
SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2 WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY
WITHIN THE LOWEST 0.5 KM AGL...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

2. FARTHER SOUTH INTO SWRN OK AND FAR ERN PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A
NARROW...NNE-SSW-ORIENTED RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. CONVECTIVE
PLUMES MAY EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THEY ENTER OK WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE PRESENT.

3. FARTHER NORTH INTO N-CNTRL KS...A QLCS SEGMENT AND EMBEDDED LEWP
STRUCTURE WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO WHILE TRACKING ACROSS PARTS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOUND AT ITS
INTERSECTION WITH A W-E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   39819687 38409713 36879785 35349850 34469935 34540021
            35060050 36120037 37750027 39310043 39849993 39949913
            39969838 39819687

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 13, 9:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 17 more61 min
Apr 14, 3:42 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCChautauqua, Labette, Montgomery5 hr
Apr 14, 7:11 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Labette64 min
Apr 14, 9:42 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Finney, Ford, Gove, Grant, Gray and 10 more93 min
Apr 14, 10:43 AM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 42 more7 hr
Apr 14, 11:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 40 more61 min
Apr 14, 12:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Chautauqua, Coffey, Cowley, Dickinson and 19 more64 min
Apr 14, 1:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDecatur, Rawlins2 hr
Apr 14, 1:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Clark, Cloud, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 20 more61 min
Apr 14, 2:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cloud, Jewell, Lincoln, Mitchell, Ottawa and 2 more32 min
Apr 14, 3:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth and 10 more29 min
Apr 14, 4:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Nemaha58 min
Apr 14, 4:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Dickinson and 32 more66 min
Apr 14, 5:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCDoniphan7 hr
Apr 14, 5:24 PM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCBarber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 57 more9 hr
Apr 13, 7:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 24 more55 min
Apr 13, 8:36 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland and 31 more7 hr
Apr 13, 9:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 19 more92 min
Apr 13, 11:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 20 more90 min
Apr 14, 2:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland and 31 more65 min
Apr 14, 1:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 21 more2 hr
Apr 13, 9:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBriscoe, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Donley, Hall and 1 more97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.