Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 521

April 14, 201216 counties in Kansas; 6 counties in Oklahoma; 19 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 14, 2012, 9:42 AM CDT for 16 counties in Kansas; 6 counties in Oklahoma; 19 counties in Texas. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 14, 2012, 9:42 AM CDT (14:42 UTC)
Expired
Apr 14, 2012, 11:15 AM CDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties

Clark County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gove County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Harper County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2012-04-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1516 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2012-04-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 413 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1516 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-96 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
527 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
413 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
432 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
11.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

911 
ACUS11 KWNS 141442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141442 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-141615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 141442Z - 141615Z

CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...WRN OK...AND SWRN KS IF THE THREAT FOR DEEPENING
CONVECTION ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A ZONE OF TOWERING CUMULUS
EVOLVING FROM FAR SWRN KS SSWWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THIS
ZONE ALIGNS WITH A RIBBON OF INFERRED ASCENT PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE 12Z AMARILLO RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SFC OBS
INDICATES THAT INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL HAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY IN
POCKETS OF INSOLATION. FARTHER NORTH INTO SWRN KS -- I.E. NORTH OF
THE TRACK OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PRIOR SUBTLE IMPULSE -- THE CAP
IS MUCH MORE STOUT PER DODGE CITY 12Z RAOB. REGARDLESS...CONTINUED
SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND
DECREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE/FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY BE IMMINENT. ALSO OF NOTE...DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF
FIELDS HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO REPRESENTING THE
CURRENT SCENARIO...AND LIKELY ARE NOT RESOLVING SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT THAT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE INITIATION.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2...MAINTAINED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..COHEN.. 04/14/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   37660167 38810114 39030029 38769945 37969943 37449946
            36509931 35199941 34430029 34460143 35200229 36890190
            37660167

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 13, 9:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 17 more61 min
Apr 14, 3:42 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCChautauqua, Labette, Montgomery5 hr
Apr 14, 7:11 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Labette64 min
Apr 14, 10:43 AM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 42 more7 hr
Apr 14, 11:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 40 more61 min
Apr 14, 12:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Chautauqua, Coffey, Cowley, Dickinson and 19 more64 min
Apr 14, 1:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDecatur, Rawlins2 hr
Apr 14, 1:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Clark, Cloud, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 20 more61 min
Apr 14, 2:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cloud, Jewell, Lincoln, Mitchell, Ottawa and 2 more32 min
Apr 14, 3:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth and 10 more29 min
Apr 14, 3:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Clay, Cloud, Comanche and 33 more57 min
Apr 14, 4:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Nemaha58 min
Apr 14, 4:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Dickinson and 32 more66 min
Apr 14, 5:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCDoniphan7 hr
Apr 14, 5:24 PM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCBarber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 57 more9 hr
Apr 13, 7:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 24 more55 min
Apr 13, 8:36 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland and 31 more7 hr
Apr 13, 9:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 19 more92 min
Apr 13, 11:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 20 more90 min
Apr 14, 2:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland and 31 more65 min
Apr 14, 1:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 21 more2 hr
Apr 13, 9:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBriscoe, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Donley, Hall and 1 more97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.