Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1046

June 4, 20124 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 4, 2012, 3:14 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 4, 2012, 3:14 AM CDT (08:14 UTC)
Expired
Jun 4, 2012, 4:45 AM CDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Colbert County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Crittenden County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Union County, MS, Fayette County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Shelby County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2012-06-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 298 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2012-06-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 79 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
298 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-116 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2116 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
79 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

770 
ACUS11 KWNS 040814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040814 
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-040945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SWRN TN...NRN MS AND NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 040814Z - 040945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH NERN AR...SWRN TN...NRN MS AND
NWRN AL MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THOUGH A WW IS
POSSIBLE...IT MAY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS THE STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW
EVIDENCE OF FURTHER ORGANIZATION OR THAT SEVERE GUSTS ARE REACHING
THE SURFACE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE SHOWN AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HOUR AS THEY DEVELOP SWD
THROUGH NERN AR AND WRN TN...POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THEIR
CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL INTERACTING WITH THE WSWLY LLJ. THE STORMS
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 30-40 KT WLY FLOW BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KM. DESPITE
BEING ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE LAYER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE SINCE THE STABLE LAYER IS
RATHER SHALLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY COLD. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG THE CONSOLIDATED COLD POOL NEXT COUPLE HOURS
WITH A FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE WEST ALONG THE WSWLY LLJ.

..DIAL/HART.. 06/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35559039 35348862 34738753 34148791 34609035 35559039

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 3, 7:09 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCColbert, Franklin, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Morgan7 hr
Jun 3, 8:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColbert, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone56 min
Jun 3, 11:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlount, Cherokee, Colbert, Cullman, DeKalb, Etowah and 10 more62 min
Jun 4, 5:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bibb, Blount, Bullock, Butler and 29 more87 min
Jun 4, 8:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Bullock, Chambers, Elmore, Henry, Lee and 5 more2 hr
Jun 3, 7:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Washington58 min
Jun 3, 11:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more8 hr
Jun 4, 1:51 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Crawford, Madison, Washington54 min
Jun 4, 3:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCleburne, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin, Johnson and 6 more96 min
Jun 4, 1:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 19 more113 min
Jun 4, 5:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 13 more114 min
Jun 4, 2:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHenry, Houston, Montgomery, Robertson, Stewart2 hr
Jun 4, 3:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Henry, Houston and 8 more7 hr
Jun 4, 6:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Cheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Henry, Houston and 10 more93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.