Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1048

June 4, 201235 counties in Alabama; 62 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 4, 2012, 5:33 AM CDT for 35 counties in Alabama; 62 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 4, 2012, 5:33 AM CDT (10:33 UTC)
Expired
Jun 4, 2012, 7:00 AM CDT
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 97 counties

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Butler County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dale County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Hale County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Baker County, GA, Baldwin County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Butts County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Carroll County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Clay County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Coweta County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Haralson County, GA, Harris County, GA, Heard County, GA, Houston County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lee County, GA, Macon County, GA, Marion County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pike County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Schley County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Troup County, GA, Turner County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Upson County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA, Worth County, GA

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 00:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2012-06-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 815 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2012-06-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 139 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
815 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-39 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1442 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
139 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
286 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
8.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

335 
ACUS11 KWNS 041033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041033 
GAZ000-ALZ000-041200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL/NERN MS ESEWD ACROSS AL INTO THE SRN HALF
OF GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 041033Z - 041200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS -- MAY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS STORMS ROLL SEWD WITH TIME. 
THIS POTENTIAL THREAT MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD
ACROSS NRN MS/NRN AL ATTM...WITH SOME HINTS AT SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO
DEVELOPMENT ON ERN PORTIONS OF THIS CLUSTER -- OVER NWRN AL. 
HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS CONFIRM THIS EVOLUTION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT TAKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY BOW-SHAPED CONFIGURATION AND SPREADING THE CLUSTER
SEWD/ESEWD ACROSS AL...AND LATER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN GA.  

KINEMATICALLY...THE NAM HINTS AT AN INCREASE IN WNWLY FLOW IN THE
850 TO 500 MB LAYER THROUGH 12Z AND BEYOND.  THIS PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT THAT A MORE WELL-ORGANIZED/BOWING MCS MAY INDEED
EVOLVE...BECOMING ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT AND
MOVING QUICKLY SEWD -- ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS MCS FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION/BOWING -- WHICH WOULD THEN PROMPT CONSIDERATION OF WW
ISSUANCE ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND GA.

..GOSS/HART.. 06/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

LAT...LON   34158650 33908540 33908540 33148329 32818277 31488279
            30758351 31248612 32408782 33498808 34158650

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 3, 7:09 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCColbert, Franklin, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Morgan7 hr
Jun 3, 8:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColbert, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone56 min
Jun 3, 11:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlount, Cherokee, Colbert, Cullman, DeKalb, Etowah and 10 more62 min
Jun 4, 3:14 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColbert, Franklin91 min
Jun 4, 8:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Bullock, Chambers, Elmore, Henry, Lee and 5 more2 hr
Jun 4, 12:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brantley and 39 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.