Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1049

June 4, 201211 counties in Alabama; Baker County, Florida; 79 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 4, 2012, 8:43 AM CDT for 11 counties in Alabama; Baker County, Florida; 79 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 4, 2012, 8:43 AM CDT (13:43 UTC)
Expired
Jun 4, 2012, 10:45 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 91 counties

Barbour County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Henry County, AL, Lee County, AL, Macon County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Pike County, AL, Russell County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Baker County, FL, Appling County, GA, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Candler County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Clay County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Echols County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Harris County, GA, Houston County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lee County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Macon County, GA, Marion County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Pike County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Schley County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Tift County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Troup County, GA, Turner County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Upson County, GA, Ware County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA, Worth County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2012-06-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 277 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2012-06-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
277 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-87 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
839 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
180 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

672 
ACUS11 KWNS 041344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041343
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-041545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AL/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA AND FAR NORTH FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041343Z - 041545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT TSTMS WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA AS AN MCS/ASSOCIATED
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AT
AROUND 35-40 KT. DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN MCS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/SURFACE COLD
POOL EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
AL AND WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST GA AS OF 1330Z. UPDRAFT INTENSITY
ALONG THE OUTFLOW/EDGE OF THE MCS HAS REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY STATE
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...BUT INCREASINGLY INTENSE SURFACE BASED
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S F
IN THE AFTERNOON AMID AMPLE INSOLATION PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ALBEIT LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTIVE
LINE...REGIONAL 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
BIRMINGHAM/ATLANTA/TALLAHASSEE ARE INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY STRONG
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND/ABOVE 4 KM...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING LINEAR MODE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

..GUYER/CARBIN.. 06/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   32768652 33038522 33398442 32568168 31858118 30278222
            31838646 32768652

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 3, 7:09 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCColbert, Franklin, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Morgan7 hr
Jun 3, 8:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColbert, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone56 min
Jun 3, 11:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlount, Cherokee, Colbert, Cullman, DeKalb, Etowah and 10 more62 min
Jun 4, 3:14 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColbert, Franklin91 min
Jun 4, 5:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bibb, Blount, Bullock, Butler and 29 more87 min
Jun 4, 12:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCNassau3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.