Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1047

June 4, 201212 counties in Arkansas; Sequoyah County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 4, 2012, 3:39 AM CDT for 12 counties in Arkansas; Sequoyah County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 4, 2012, 3:39 AM CDT (08:39 UTC)
Expired
Jun 4, 2012, 5:15 AM CDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pope County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Yell County, AR, Sequoyah County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2012-06-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1781 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2012-06-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 228 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1781 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
936 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
228 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
352 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.5
Supercell composite
12.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

469 
ACUS11 KWNS 040839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040839 
ARZ000-OKZ000-041015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK THROUGH NCNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 040839Z - 041015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AS THEY MOVE THROUGH NWRN AND EVENTUALLY NCNTRL AR EARLY THIS
MORNING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH EAST OF WW 350 TO INCLUDE NCNTRL AR.

DISCUSSION...A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MESO-VORTEX OVER NERN OK. STRONGEST STORMS EXIST
ALONG SERN PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF MESO-VORTEX.
THIS LINE SEGMENT MAY CONTINUE TO BOW AND ACCELERATE EWD INTO NWRN
AR WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN FARTHER WEST...AND WHERE A RESERVOIR
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE EXISTS. LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS AND A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO DURATION OF
THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

..DIAL/HART.. 06/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   35349524 35979417 35819190 34809169 34959360 35349524

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 3, 7:09 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Lawrence and 5 more7 hr
Jun 3, 7:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Washington58 min
Jun 3, 8:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner, Greene and 6 more56 min
Jun 3, 11:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more8 hr
Jun 4, 1:51 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Crawford, Madison, Washington54 min
Jun 4, 3:14 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden91 min
Jun 4, 1:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 19 more113 min
Jun 4, 5:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 13 more114 min
Jun 3, 8:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Ellis, Greer, Harmon, Harper and 3 more57 min
Jun 3, 9:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 27 more59 min
Jun 3, 10:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 14 more3 hr
Jun 4, 3:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCimarron, Texas91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.