Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1050
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 4, 2012, 1:07 PM CDT for 25 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 4, 2012, 1:07 PM CDT (18:07 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 4, 2012, 3:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 25 counties
Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Conway County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR
The radar
The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 262 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 887 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -303 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1029 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 7 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -48 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
868
ACUS11 KWNS 041808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041807
ARZ000-042000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041807Z - 042000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...RECENT RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SALINE COUNTY AR SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER A FOCUSED
AREA OF CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE REMAINS IN
QUESTION BUT A WATCH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT AND TIME
OF DAY.
DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MCV ACROSS THE OZARKS
HAVE ERODED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOWED FOR STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AR. FOCUSED LIFT
ACCOMPANYING THE MCV HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WEST OF LIT. VWP AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST
THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING NEAR/WITHIN A BAND OF 40-50KT
MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCV. RESULTANT AMBIENT
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION WITH A CHANCE FOR
HAIL. IF STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS REMAINING WEAK INHIBITION IS
OVERCOME BY ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF SURFACE HEATING...A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.
..CARBIN.. 06/04/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34239321 34559323 34749327 35039315 35449295 35749261
35739250 35689167 35329121 34559094 33669128 33429168
33379207 33459280 33769299 34239321SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 7:09 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Lawrence and 5 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 3, 7:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Washington | 58 min |
| Jun 3, 8:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner, Greene and 6 more | 56 min |
| Jun 3, 11:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 4, 1:51 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Crawford, Madison, Washington | 54 min |
| Jun 4, 3:14 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crittenden | 91 min |
| Jun 4, 3:39 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cleburne, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin, Johnson and 6 more | 96 min |
| Jun 4, 5:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 13 more | 114 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.