Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1050

June 4, 201225 counties in Arkansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 4, 2012, 1:07 PM CDT for 25 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 113 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 4, 2012, 1:07 PM CDT (18:07 UTC)
Expired
Jun 4, 2012, 3:00 PM CDT
In force
113 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 25 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Conway County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 262 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2012-06-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 887 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2012-06-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -48 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
887 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-303 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1029 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

868 
ACUS11 KWNS 041808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041807
ARZ000-042000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041807Z - 042000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RECENT RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SALINE COUNTY AR SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER A FOCUSED
AREA OF CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE REMAINS IN
QUESTION BUT A WATCH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT AND TIME
OF DAY.

DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT MCV ACROSS THE OZARKS
HAVE ERODED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALLOWED FOR STRONG
SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AR. FOCUSED LIFT
ACCOMPANYING THE MCV HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WEST OF LIT. VWP AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST
THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING NEAR/WITHIN A BAND OF 40-50KT
MID LEVEL WLY FLOW ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE MCV. RESULTANT AMBIENT
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION WITH A CHANCE FOR
HAIL. IF STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS REMAINING WEAK INHIBITION IS
OVERCOME BY ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF SURFACE HEATING...A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED.

..CARBIN.. 06/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34239321 34559323 34749327 35039315 35449295 35749261
            35739250 35689167 35329121 34559094 33669128 33429168
            33379207 33459280 33769299 34239321

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 3, 7:09 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Lawrence and 5 more7 hr
Jun 3, 7:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Washington58 min
Jun 3, 8:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner, Greene and 6 more56 min
Jun 3, 11:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more8 hr
Jun 4, 1:51 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Crawford, Madison, Washington54 min
Jun 4, 3:14 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden91 min
Jun 4, 3:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCleburne, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin, Johnson and 6 more96 min
Jun 4, 5:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 13 more114 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.