Mesoscale Discussion 1052

Issued

Jun 4, 2012, 2:38 PM CDT (19:38 UTC)

Expired

Jun 4, 2012, 4:45 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

60%

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 353Jun 4, 3:25 PM CDT

043 
ACUS11 KWNS 041939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041938
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-042145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KY/TN AND FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041938Z - 042145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...INITIALLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN MO AND WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL IL. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A 19Z-ANALYZED WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MO/NEAR STL...AND A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING WEAK FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IL INTO WEST-CENTRAL KY...WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE RELATIVELY
NEBULOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION MAY EXIST...A PASSING MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE COLLOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS IN VICINITY OF THE
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING FRONTAL ZONE...WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY /1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ SOUTHWEST OF THE FRONT AND
40-50 KT MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.

SUPPORTED BY AN ASSORTMENT OF DETERMINISTIC/CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE...SCATTERED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS
WITHIN A NNW-SSE CORRIDOR ACROSS THE REGION...WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL/PERHAPS WEST-CENTRAL IL. THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...INCLUDING THE MO BOOTHEEL VICINITY AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND SEVERE HAIL.

..GUYER/CARBIN.. 06/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   39089157 39999098 38538872 37848714 37448670 36728655
            36148744 36438951 37569088 39089157

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.