Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
713 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MCV MOVING THROUGH KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR AN
INCH AND A HALF TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. FLASH FLOODING...AERIAL
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN...ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS OVER PREVIOUSLY
SATURATED BASINS AND RUNOFF ELEVATES WATER LEVELS IN CREEKS AND
RIVERS. PLEASE SEE CURRENT TOPFLWTOP...TOPFFWTOP AND TOPFLSTOP
PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS A MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ENCOUNTERED. THUS WILL CANCEL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST INCLUDES ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MUGGY...WINDY AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE PLAINS WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED NEAR 25
DEGREES CELSIUS. MIXING WILL AID IN HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AND WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY WITH
A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS POSITIONED THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN FAR NORTHERN KANSAS
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT COULD
APPROACH NORTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS PROG A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH COULD ALSO
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN KANSAS. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PLAINS.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS BY 15Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10
KNOTS AFTER 00Z.

ANGLE

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
448 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-031000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
448 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL END BY 8 AM. RUNOFF FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING... AERIAL
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. SEE TOPFFWTOP..TOPFLWTOP...
TOPFLSTOP AND TOPFFSTOP PRODUCTS FOR CURRENT FLOOD INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
931 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW RANDOLPH           39.47N 96.81W
06/02/2011  M4.80 INCH       RILEY              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
942 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LOUISVILLE              39.25N 96.31W
06/02/2011                   POTTAWATOMIE       KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROCK CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANKS AND IS FLOODING RESIDENCES
            ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF HIGHWAY 99 IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
954 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     FLOOD            4 NNE MINNEAPOLIS       39.18N 97.68W
06/02/2011                   OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ESTIMATES 2-3 FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROAD AT
            TREATY RD AND 190TH RD.

&&

ANDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1002 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 AM     HEAVY RAIN       8 SW WAMEGO             39.11N 96.39W
06/02/2011  M2.95 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1029 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E HOYT                39.26N 95.61W
06/02/2011  M3.70 INCH       JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1030 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N WELLS               39.20N 97.55W
06/02/2011                   OTTAWA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING OVER INTERSECTION OF 210TH AND QUARTZ ROAD

&&

COMITT