Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING CONVECTION.

PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER TWO
INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. VERY LITTLE UPPER FLOW HAS LIMITED STORMS
ABILITY TO ORGANIZE SO EXPECT MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A LIMITED HAIL
THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FIRE THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF WARM
FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONVECTIVE THREAT
DIMINISHES AND THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AS THE ARE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR. KWH

UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER MID AMERICA THROUGH MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP AS WE REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. BEST
CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING APPEAR TO BE FRI NIGHT IN NC KS AND SAT
NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS MCS COULD DEVELOP
OVER NEBRASKA EACH NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF REMNANTS
AFFECTING NORTHERN COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCE COULD BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND
ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD SET OFF ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THAT FAR OUT FOR EASTERN KS AS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMERLIKE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. 60

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH MHK AND WILL EFFECT TOP
AND FOE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY COULD
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIP SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY SUNSET WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

ANDERSON

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
505 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...HAIL OF GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
742 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     HAIL             7 W AGENDA              39.71N 97.56W
06/01/2011  E2.00 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            210 AND VALLEY ROAD

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
745 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             NE ABILENE              38.92N 97.21W
06/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
748 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             ABILENE                 38.92N 97.21W
06/01/2011  E2.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
751 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             NE ABILENE              38.92N 97.21W
06/01/2011  E2.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL HAIL COVERING GROUND.

&&

JB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
802 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ023-038-039-020130-
POTTAWATOMIE-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
802 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...
SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 830 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE
AND NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
KEENE...PAXICO...WILLARD...ST. MARYS...SILVER LAKE...ROSSVILLE AND
MAPLE HILL. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 331
AND 348 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3916 9580 3886 9611 3896 9630 3929 9607
      3928 9603 3922 9603 3922 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 214DEG 13KT 3898 9614

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
805 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 WNW AGENDA            39.72N 97.46W
06/01/2011                   REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER WAS LOOKING NORTHWEST.

&&

JB