Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MCV MOVING THROUGH KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR AN
INCH AND A HALF TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. FLASH FLOODING...AERIAL
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN...ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS OVER PREVIOUSLY
SATURATED BASINS AND RUNOFF ELEVATES WATER LEVELS IN CREEKS AND
RIVERS. PLEASE SEE CURRENT TOPFLWTOP...TOPFFWTOP AND TOPFLSTOP
PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS A MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ENCOUNTERED. THUS WILL CANCEL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST INCLUDES ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MUGGY...WINDY AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE PLAINS WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED NEAR 25
DEGREES CELSIUS. MIXING WILL AID IN HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AND WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY WITH
A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS POSITIONED THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN FAR NORTHERN KANSAS
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT COULD
APPROACH NORTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS PROG A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH COULD ALSO
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN KANSAS. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PLAINS.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 06Z TAFS...SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z OVER KMHK AND AFTER 07Z FOR KTOP/KFOE.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG VRB WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
KTS WITH IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS. WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER AT OR NEAR
THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

BOWEN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
448 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-031000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
448 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL END BY 8 AM. RUNOFF FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING... AERIAL
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. SEE TOPFFWTOP..TOPFLWTOP...
TOPFLSTOP AND TOPFFSTOP PRODUCTS FOR CURRENT FLOOD INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE LONGFORD           39.21N 97.28W
06/02/2011  M5.00 INCH       CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
552 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 N GREEN               39.53N 97.00W
06/01/2011  M3.50 INCH       CLAY               KS   PUBLIC

            859 ROAD HAD WATER RUNNING ACROSS THE ROAD. APPROXIMATELY
            3 INCHES DEEP FROM THE NEARBY FIELD.

0223 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N GREEN               39.50N 97.00W
06/01/2011  E1.50 INCH       CLAY               KS   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

0245 PM     HAIL             2 WNW OLSBURG           39.44N 96.64W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0307 PM     HAIL             NNW WESTMORELAND        39.40N 96.42W
06/01/2011  E1.25 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL COLLECTING ON THE
            GROUND.

0307 PM     HAIL             WESTMORELAND            39.39N 96.41W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0330 PM     HAIL             10 E WESTMORELAND       39.39N 96.23W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   PUBLIC

0341 PM     HAIL             7 N ST. MARYS           39.30N 96.07W
06/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON HWY 63. ALSO ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS.

0353 PM     HAIL             1 NNW EMMETT            39.32N 96.06W
06/01/2011  E1.50 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0355 PM     HAIL             EMMETT                  39.31N 96.06W
06/01/2011  E2.75 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS. RELAYED THROUGH DISPATCH.

0357 PM     HAIL             OSAGE CITY              38.63N 95.83W
06/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       OSAGE              KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0359 PM     HAIL             2 NNW OSAGE CITY        38.66N 95.84W
06/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM     HAIL             FRANKFORT               39.71N 96.42W
06/01/2011  E0.75 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0404 PM     HAIL             1 SW OSAGE CITY         38.63N 95.83W
06/01/2011  E1.25 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0404 PM     HAIL             2 NNW OSAGE CITY        38.66N 95.84W
06/01/2011  E2.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0408 PM     HAIL             2 NNW OSAGE CITY        38.66N 95.84W
06/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0428 PM     HAIL             4 SSE SCRANTON          38.72N 95.72W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0447 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BLAINE                  39.50N 96.40W
06/01/2011  E2.50 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0447 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BLAINE                  39.50N 96.40W
06/01/2011  E2.50 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO PENNY SIZE HAIL.

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N HOYT                39.26N 95.71W
06/01/2011  E75.00 MPH       JACKSON            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

0458 PM     HAIL             3 SSE MAYETTA           39.30N 95.70W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0501 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NNE MARYSVILLE          39.85N 96.64W
06/01/2011  E1.50 INCH       MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 2 PM CDT. SPOTTER LIVES ON A HILL
            AND WAS UNAWARE OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES.

0531 PM     HAIL             GOFF                    39.66N 95.93W
06/01/2011  E0.88 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   PUBLIC

0541 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SW SENECA               39.83N 96.06W
06/01/2011                   NEMAHA             KS   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER COVERING K187 HIGHWAY. HIGHWAY IS NOT CLOSED BUT
            DEPUTIES ARE ON THE SCENE DIRECTING TRAFFIC.

0547 PM     HAIL             1 SSE WETMORE           39.62N 95.81W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL HAS BEEN FALLING FOR THE PAST 5 MINS

0553 PM     HAIL             SE OZAWKIE              39.23N 95.47W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     SE OZAWKIE              39.23N 95.47W
06/01/2011  E65.00 MPH       JEFFERSON          KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            60-65 MPH WINDS CAUSED MINOR TREE DAMAGE ALONG HIGHWAY 92
            OVER PERRY LAKE.

0604 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE OZAWKIE           39.22N 95.43W
06/01/2011  M1.46 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SINCE 530 PM CDT.

0605 PM     HAIL             2 ESE OZAWKIE           39.22N 95.43W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            30-35 MPH WINDS.

0610 PM     HAIL             5 E OLSBURG             39.43N 96.52W
06/01/2011  E0.75 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   PUBLIC

0628 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW WOODLAWN          39.77N 95.94W
06/01/2011  M1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL

0719 PM     HAIL             8 SSW ABILENE           38.81N 97.28W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0724 PM     HAIL             7 W AGENDA              39.71N 97.56W
06/01/2011  E2.00 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            210 AND VALLEY ROAD

0734 PM     HAIL             4 SE ABILENE            38.87N 97.15W
06/01/2011  E1.25 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH HALF DOLLARS MIXED IN.

0740 PM     HAIL             ABILENE                 38.92N 97.21W
06/01/2011  E2.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0744 PM     HAIL             NE ABILENE              38.92N 97.21W
06/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0749 PM     HAIL             NE ABILENE              38.92N 97.21W
06/01/2011  E2.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL HAIL COVERING GROUND.

0800 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 WNW AGENDA            39.72N 97.46W
06/01/2011                   REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER WAS LOOKING NORTHWEST.

0933 PM     HAIL             2 SW CARLTON            38.67N 97.32W
06/01/2011  E0.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 PM     HAIL             2 SW CARLTON            38.67N 97.32W
06/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LASTED FROM 930 PM TO 945 PM CDT.

0956 PM     HAIL             4 W CARLTON             38.69N 97.37W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   PUBLIC

            COVERING THE GROUND

1000 PM     HAIL             CLIFTON                 39.57N 97.28W
06/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1008 PM     HAIL             11 SSW ABILENE          38.77N 97.32W
06/01/2011  E1.50 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL BEGAN FALLING AT 953 PM CDT AS NICKELS AND INCREASED
            IN SIZE WITH TIME.

1033 PM     TSTM WND GST     ABILENE                 38.92N 97.21W
06/01/2011  M64.00 MPH       DICKINSON          KS   AWOS

            SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 54 MPH

1035 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CLYDE                   39.59N 97.40W
06/01/2011  M2.79 INCH       CLOUD              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL THROUGH 1035 PM CDT.

1036 PM     HAIL             3 WSW ABILENE           38.90N 97.26W
06/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TESCOTT                 39.01N 97.88W
06/01/2011  M2.10 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL FROM 1015 PM TO 1100 PM CDT

1104 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 E CLIFTON             39.57N 97.17W
06/01/2011  E2.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CREEKS AND DITCHES ARE BANK FULL.

1142 PM     TSTM WND GST     SOLOMON                 38.92N 97.36W
06/01/2011  E60.00 MPH       DICKINSON          KS   PUBLIC

1211 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AGENDA                  39.71N 97.43W
06/02/2011                   REPUBLIC           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 148 CLOSED BETWEEN TALMO AND AGENDA WITH 3 TO 5
            FEET OF WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

1216 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW JUNCTION CITY     39.07N 96.85W
06/02/2011  E65.00 MPH       GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 65 MPH WITH ZERO VISIBILITY.

1216 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S AGENDA              39.69N 97.43W
06/02/2011                   REPUBLIC           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS 220 SOUTH OF WAYNE AND 290 SOUTH OF ADGENDA ARE
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROADWAYS.

1220 AM     HAIL             3 NNW JUNCTION CITY     39.07N 96.85W
06/02/2011  E0.88 INCH       GEARY              KS   STORM CHASER

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S JUNCTION CITY       39.01N 96.83W
06/02/2011                   GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SMALL TREE DOWNED NEAR I-70 AND WASHINGTON STREET

0347 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MANHATTAN               39.18N 96.57W
06/02/2011                   RILEY              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSECTION OF ANDERSON AND SCENIC ROADS CLOSED WITH AT
            LEAST 6 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER. PORTIONS OF GARDENWAY RD
            CLOSED. APARTMENT BEING EVACUATED NEAR WILDCAT CREEK AS
            CREEK EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF BANKS.

0503 AM     FLOOD            GLASCO                  39.36N 97.84W
06/02/2011                   CLOUD              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            12 TO 18 INCHES OF WATER OVER RESIDENTIAL STREETS.

0504 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE LONGFORD           39.21N 97.28W
06/02/2011  M5.00 INCH       CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ANGLE

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