Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1213 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ARE FOR CURRENT BOW ECHO MOVING
ACROSS DICKINSON COUNTY INTO GEARY / MORRIS/RILEY COUNTIES. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOISTURE
AXIS WITH THE VEERING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS TO AREAS ALONG THE PATH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011/

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING CONVECTION.

PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER TWO
INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. VERY LITTLE UPPER FLOW HAS LIMITED STORMS
ABILITY TO ORGANIZE SO EXPECT MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A LIMITED HAIL
THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FIRE THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF WARM
FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONVECTIVE THREAT
DIMINISHES AND THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AS THE ARE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR. KWH

UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER MID AMERICA THROUGH MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP AS WE REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. BEST
CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING APPEAR TO BE FRI NIGHT IN NC KS AND SAT
NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS MCS COULD DEVELOP
OVER NEBRASKA EACH NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF REMNANTS
AFFECTING NORTHERN COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCE COULD BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND
ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD SET OFF ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THAT FAR OUT FOR EASTERN KS AS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMERLIKE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. 60

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
505 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...HAIL OF GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1110 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ034-020500-
OTTAWA-
1110 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY...

THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BENNINGTON AND NILES.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. IF WATER IS RISING...MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND AND NEVER DRIVE ACROSS ROADS COVERED BY WATER.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE
A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 9779 3915 9737 3896 9737 3895 9778
      3896 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 263DEG 8KT 3900 9766

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1145 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     TSTM WND GST     SOLOMON                 38.92N 97.36W
06/01/2011  E60 MPH          DICKINSON          KS   PUBLIC

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1211 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AGENDA                  39.71N 97.43W
06/02/2011                   REPUBLIC           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 148 CLOSED BETWEEN TALMO AND AGENDA WITH 3 TO 5
            FEET OF WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1218 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW JUNCTION CITY     39.07N 96.85W
06/02/2011  E65 MPH          GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 65 MPH WITH ZERO VISIBILITY.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S AGENDA              39.69N 97.43W
06/02/2011                   REPUBLIC           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS 220 SOUTH OF WAYNE AND 290 SOUTH OF ADGENDA ARE
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROADWAYS.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     HAIL             3 NNW JUNCTION CITY     39.07N 96.85W
06/02/2011  E0.88 INCH       GEARY              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

KC