Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MCV MOVING THROUGH KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR AN
INCH AND A HALF TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. FLASH FLOODING...AERIAL
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN...ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS OVER PREVIOUSLY
SATURATED BASINS AND RUNOFF ELEVATES WATER LEVELS IN CREEKS AND
RIVERS. PLEASE SEE CURRENT TOPFLWTOP...TOPFFWTOP AND TOPFLSTOP
PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS A MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ENCOUNTERED. THUS WILL CANCEL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418 WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST INCLUDES ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MUGGY...WINDY AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE PLAINS WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED NEAR 25
DEGREES CELSIUS. MIXING WILL AID IN HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ALONG
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AND WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY WITH
A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS POSITIONED THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS.
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN FAR NORTHERN KANSAS
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT COULD
APPROACH NORTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS PROG A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN KANSAS WHICH COULD ALSO
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN KANSAS. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PLAINS.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 06Z TAFS...SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z OVER KMHK AND AFTER 07Z FOR KTOP/KFOE.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG VRB WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
KTS WITH IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS. WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER AT OR NEAR
THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

BOWEN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
448 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-031000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
448 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL END BY 8 AM. RUNOFF FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING... AERIAL
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING. SEE TOPFFWTOP..TOPFLWTOP...
TOPFLSTOP AND TOPFFSTOP PRODUCTS FOR CURRENT FLOOD INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     HAIL             3 NNW JUNCTION CITY     39.07N 96.85W
06/02/2011  E0.88 INCH       GEARY              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
112 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S JUNCTION CITY       39.01N 96.83W
06/02/2011                   GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SMALL TREE DOWNED NEAR I-70 AND WASHINGTON STREET

&&

ANGLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
118 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

KSZ024-020700-
JACKSON-
118 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON COUNTY...

THROUGH 200 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT
40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE DELIA...SOLDIER...
POTAWATOMI RESERVATION...CIRCLEVILLE...MAYETTA... HOYT...HOLTON...
DENISON AND WHITING.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER.

&&

LAT...LON 3959 9556 3942 9556 3942 9559 3922 9559
      3922 9603 3957 9604 3957 9579 3963 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 253DEG 36KT 3940 9622 3923 9611
          3900 9621

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MANHATTAN               39.18N 96.57W
06/02/2011                   RILEY              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSECTION OF ANDERSON AND SCENIC ROADS CLOSED WITH AT
            LEAST 6 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER. PORTIONS OF GARDENWAY RD
            CLOSED. APARTMENT BEING EVACUATED NEAR WILDCAT CREEK AS
            CREEK EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF BANKS.

&&

BLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
503 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 AM     FLOOD            GLASCO                  39.36N 97.84W
06/02/2011                   CLOUD              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            12 TO 18 INCHES OF WATER OVER RESIDENTIAL STREETS.

&&

BLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NE LONGFORD           39.21N 97.28W
06/02/2011  M5.00 INCH       CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BLAIR