Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1244 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ARE FOR CURRENT BOW ECHO MOVING
ACROSS DICKINSON COUNTY INTO GEARY / MORRIS/RILEY COUNTIES. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOISTURE
AXIS WITH THE VEERING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS TO AREAS ALONG THE PATH.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR 06Z TAFS...SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z OVER KMHK AND AFTER 07Z FOR KTOP/KFOE.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG VRB WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
KTS WITH IFR VIS AND MVFR CIGS. WITH AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER AT OR NEAR
THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

BOWEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1213 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011/
/ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011/

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING CONVECTION.

PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER TWO
INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. VERY LITTLE UPPER FLOW HAS LIMITED STORMS
ABILITY TO ORGANIZE SO EXPECT MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A LIMITED HAIL
THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FIRE THIS EVENING IN VICINITY OF WARM
FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONVECTIVE THREAT
DIMINISHES AND THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AS THE ARE REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
IN THE WARM SECTOR. KWH

UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER MID AMERICA THROUGH MOST OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP AS WE REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES. BEST
CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING APPEAR TO BE FRI NIGHT IN NC KS AND SAT
NIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS MCS COULD DEVELOP
OVER NEBRASKA EACH NIGHT...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF REMNANTS
AFFECTING NORTHERN COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCE COULD BE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND
ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD SET OFF ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME HAVE NOT ADDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THAT FAR OUT FOR EASTERN KS AS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUMMERLIKE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. 60

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
505 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
505 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...HAIL OF GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1211 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 AM     FLASH FLOOD      AGENDA                  39.71N 97.43W
06/02/2011                   REPUBLIC           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 148 CLOSED BETWEEN TALMO AND AGENDA WITH 3 TO 5
            FEET OF WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

&&

ANGLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1218 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW JUNCTION CITY     39.07N 96.85W
06/02/2011  E65 MPH          GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 65 MPH WITH ZERO VISIBILITY.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S AGENDA              39.69N 97.43W
06/02/2011                   REPUBLIC           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS 220 SOUTH OF WAYNE AND 290 SOUTH OF ADGENDA ARE
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROADWAYS.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     HAIL             3 NNW JUNCTION CITY     39.07N 96.85W
06/02/2011  E0.88 INCH       GEARY              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
112 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S JUNCTION CITY       39.01N 96.83W
06/02/2011                   GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SMALL TREE DOWNED NEAR I-70 AND WASHINGTON STREET

&&

ANGLE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
118 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

KSZ024-020700-
JACKSON-
118 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON COUNTY...

THROUGH 200 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT
40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE DELIA...SOLDIER...
POTAWATOMI RESERVATION...CIRCLEVILLE...MAYETTA... HOYT...HOLTON...
DENISON AND WHITING.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER.

&&

LAT...LON 3959 9556 3942 9556 3942 9559 3922 9559
      3922 9603 3957 9604 3957 9579 3963 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 253DEG 36KT 3940 9622 3923 9611
          3900 9621