Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2009

Tornado Watch 305

May 15, 20097 counties in Kansas; 42 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 15, 2009, 12:50 PM CDT for 7 counties in Kansas; 42 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2009, 12:50 PM CDT (17:50 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2009, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 49 counties

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Audrain County, MO, Bates County, MO, Boone County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Henry County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Pike County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Warren County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 40%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 50%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 90%

Warnings issued inside it

37 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 12:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clinton, DeKalb	31 min
May 15, 1:02 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Atchison, Leavenworth	4 hr
May 15, 1:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Ray	26 min
May 15, 1:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Clinton, Daviess, DeKalb, Ray	33 min
May 15, 1:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Clinton, Platte	33 min
May 15, 1:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Carroll, Livingston, Ray	24 min
May 15, 2:19 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Shelby	6 hr
May 15, 2:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Ray	28 min
May 15, 2:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Marion	47 min
May 15, 2:49 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Marion, Ralls	26 min
May 15, 2:55 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Atchison, Doniphan	3 hr
May 15, 2:59 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Marion	5 hr
May 15, 3:26 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Livingston	6 hr
May 15, 3:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Lafayette, Saline	34 min
May 15, 3:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Chariton, Macon, Randolph	27 min
May 15, 3:50 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Leavenworth, Wyandotte	6 hr
May 15, 4:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Randolph	20 min
May 15, 4:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton, Howard, Lafayette, Saline	5 hr
May 15, 4:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain, Boone, Marion, Monroe, Ralls, Shelby	45 min
May 15, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson, Leavenworth, Wyandotte	35 min
May 15, 4:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Pettis, Saline	29 min
May 15, 4:48 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Knox, Lewis, Marion, Shelby	6 hr
May 15, 4:55 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Atchison, Leavenworth	5 hr
May 15, 5:03 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Audrain, Monroe, Pike, Ralls	42 min
May 15, 5:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard, Pettis, Saline	37 min
May 15, 5:12 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Audrain, Boone, Monroe, Pike, Ralls	6 hr
May 15, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Audrain, Callaway, Lincoln, Marion, Monroe, Montgomery and 2 more	63 min
May 15, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson, Wyandotte	32 min
May 15, 5:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Boone, Callaway, Cole, Moniteau	47 min
May 15, 5:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson, Lafayette	24 min
May 15, 5:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Lincoln, Pike	31 min
May 15, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson	29 min
May 15, 5:46 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Howard, Randolph	4 hr
May 15, 6:06 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Lincoln, Pike	39 min
May 15, 6:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Lincoln, Pike	51 min
May 15, 6:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Callaway	19 min
May 15, 6:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Callaway, Lincoln, Montgomery	5 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1293 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -112 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 590 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 302 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 313 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 13.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 2:03 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Doniphan and 17 more	87 min
May 15, 7:14 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Jackson, Marshall, Nemaha and 3 more	91 min
May 15, 7:42 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Douglas and 18 more	5 hr
May 15, 11:48 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha	57 min
May 15, 2:44 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Barber, Butler, Chase, Coffey, Comanche and 24 more	31 min
May 15, 3:01 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Jefferson, Leavenworth, Shawnee, Wyandotte	59 min
May 15, 3:02 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Allen, Anderson, Barber, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 29 more	7 hr
May 15, 3:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atchison, Johnson, Leavenworth, Wyandotte	62 min
May 15, 5:31 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Johnson, Wyandotte	119 min
May 15, 5:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Butler, Chase, Coffey, Cowley, Elk and 8 more	53 min
May 15, 6:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Linn, Miami	6 hr
May 15, 2:39 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Franklin, Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	7 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2009 Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2009 Every tornado watch in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.