Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 152220
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOC053-089-159-195-152245-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-090515T2245Z/
PETTIS MO-COOPER MO-HOWARD MO-SALINE MO-
520 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
SALINE...WEST CENTRAL HOWARD...NORTHWESTERN COOPER AND NORTHEASTERN
PETTIS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 519 PM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES EAST OF MARSHALL TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARSHALL TO 8 MILES
EAST OF HOUSTONIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN PETTIS...NORTHWESTERN COOPER...SOUTHEASTERN SALINE AND
WEST CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
NELSON...ARROW ROCK AND BLACKWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3905 9324 3918 9315 3915 9286 3896 9290
      3880 9305 3888 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 298DEG 21KT 3912 9308 3901 9313
          3889 9321

$$

21

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 152232
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOC053-089-159-195-152245-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-090515T2245Z/
PETTIS MO-COOPER MO-HOWARD MO-SALINE MO-
532 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
SALINE...WEST CENTRAL HOWARD...NORTHWESTERN COOPER AND NORTHEASTERN
PETTIS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 531 PM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9
MILES SOUTH OF SLATER TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF PILOT GROVE TO 12
MILES NORTHEAST OF SEDALIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN PETTIS...NORTHWESTERN COOPER...SOUTHEASTERN SALINE AND
WEST CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARROW ROCK AND BLACKWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3887 9322 3902 9314 3915 9309 3915 9286
      3896 9290 3880 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 298DEG 21KT 3909 9300 3898 9305
          3886 9313

$$

21

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 152238
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOC053-089-159-195-152248-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-090515T2245Z/
PETTIS MO-COOPER MO-HOWARD MO-SALINE MO-
538 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SALINE...WEST
CENTRAL HOWARD...NORTHWESTERN COOPER AND NORTHEASTERN PETTIS COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT...

AT 537 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. NICKEL SIZE 
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HOWARD AND COOPER COUNTIES 
THROUGH 600 PM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3887 9322 3902 9314 3915 9309 3915 9286
      3896 9290 3880 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 298DEG 21KT 3907 9296 3896 9301
          3887 9304

$$

21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
501 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AS A COLD POOL IS
OVERWHELMING THE AMBIENT SHEAR. BRISK...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SSW LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUED TO FEED STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. COPIOUS MOIST INFLUX HAS PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THIS BAND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTION
SLOWLY DEVELOPING SOUTH AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A LOW TORNADIC THREAT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY
ENHANCED. OUTSIDE OF THE TORNADIC THREAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...MODEST
SFC-6KM SHEAR AND MDT-STG INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THE
THREAT OF STG TO SVR CONVECTION.

A SFC WAVE HAS FORMED ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SW OF TOP. THIS
WAVE WILL SHIFT ESE AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST FM WRN KS. THE PASAGE
OF THIS SFC WAVE WILL END THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE
COLD FRONT ENTERING NW MO WAS ENTERING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY
WEAK CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ACCELERATE THE SFC WAVE MVMNT. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
WILL END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING SE.

DUE TO THE SLOW SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...WILL HOLD
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COOL
SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE

MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO MISSOURI IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES TUES AND WED. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE FOR GRADUALLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. WILL KEEP POPS
LOW AT THIS TIME AS CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
02Z...UNTIL A CDFNT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 00Z-02Z. CONVECTION IS BEING
GENERATED BY WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOW OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NR
KMKC. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KC METRO
TERMINALS THIS AFTN AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY. THE KSTJ
CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKER AND CONSIDERABLY MORE SCT. OTHERWISE...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL THIS EVENING AFT FROPA WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ALSO PSBL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS INCREASING AFT 03Z.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-
     MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ020-MOZ021-
     MOZ022.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ008-MOZ016-MOZ017-
     MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-
     MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-
     MOZ046.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ102.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR KSZ057-KSZ103-KSZ104-
     KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KANSAS CITY TO SOUTH OF CHILLICOTHE TO MACON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND ROUTE 36. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BY LATE THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE A
MOUND CITY KANSAS TO WARRENSBURG TO BOONVILLE LINE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY EVOLVING A SQUALL LINE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE OUTLOOK AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
443 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             4 NE LAWRENCE           39.01N 95.18W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
452 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LIBERTY                 39.24N 94.42W
05/15/2009  M4.80 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN 2.5 HOURS

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
456 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MACON                   39.74N 92.47W
05/15/2009                   MACON              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NOLL DRIVE IN CITY OF MACON UNDERWATER

&&

ACH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
500 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ104-105-MOZ029-037-152230-
CLAY-JACKSON-JOHNSON-WYANDOTTE-
500 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...SOUTHERN
WYANDOTTE...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY AND WESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 459 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHAWNEE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MERRIAM AND OVERLAND PARK AROUND 505 PM CDT.
  MISSION...WESTWOOD...MISSION WOODS AND FAIRWAY AROUND 510 PM CDT.
  WESTWOOD HILLS...KANSAS CITY...KANSAS CITY DOWNTOWN AND KANSAS CITY
  KANSAS AROUND 515 PM CDT.
  RAYTOWN AND NORTH KANSAS CITY AROUND 520 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF HOLLIDAY...LACKMANS...MUNCIE...ROELAND PARK...RANDOLPH
AND MAYWOOD ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3918 9448 3898 9431 3890 9480 3907 9487

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
503 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             1 S LAKE QUIVIRA        39.03N 94.77W
05/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
506 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             SWEET SPRINGS           38.96N 93.42W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       SALINE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CUTTER