Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 151853
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
153 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOC047-049-165-151915-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-090515T1915Z/
CLAY MO-PLATTE MO-CLINTON MO-
153 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
CLINTON...PLATTE AND NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 152 PM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
EDGERTON TO PLATTE CITY TO LEAVENWORTH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TRIMBLE AROUND 205 PM CDT.
  SMITHVILLE AROUND 215 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
HOOVER AND KANSAS CITY INTL ARPT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3939 9485 3951 9475 3952 9462 3951 9445
      3937 9456 3927 9475 3933 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 282DEG 14KT 3947 9461 3939 9474
          3934 9485

$$

21

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 151911
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
211 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOC047-049-165-151921-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-090515T1915Z/
CLAY MO-PLATTE MO-CLINTON MO-
211 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLINTON...CENTRAL
PLATTE AND NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 PM CDT...

AT 211 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. NICKEL SIZED 
HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3939 9485 3951 9475 3952 9462 3951 9445
      3937 9456 3927 9475 3933 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 282DEG 14KT 3946 9453 3938 9466
          3933 9477

$$

21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
714 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
/303 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FCST ALL
IMPACTING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TODAY.  IN THE
VERY SHORT TERM...ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD ACROSS THE 300-305K THETA-E
SFCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BANDS OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
ALONG AN AXIS FROM EMPORIA NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS CITY AND FURTHER
NE TOWARDS DAVENPORT. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED A BIT RESOLVING THIS
ELEVATED CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CONTINUED ACCAS REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS POSSIBLE.
WITH UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND INCREASING MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SVR STORM OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

WHAT THIS CONVECTION DOES THOUGH...IS THROW A BIT OF A KNOT INTO THE
SYSTEM AS FAR AS REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
AS PREVIOUS FCSTER MENTIONED...THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACING OF A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BE KEY TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL AREA
OF IMPACT THIS AFTN.  BY 12Z...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT ALONG BETWEEN THE HWY 36 AND I-70
CORRIDOR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AS LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
VEER TOWARDS DAYBREAK...LIFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE LLJ MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING HOURS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. SHOULD THIS
IDEA PAN OUT...THE SFC WARM FRONT WHICH IS SUGGESTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD UP TO OR NORTH OF THE IOWA BORDER BY EARLY AFTN...MAY STAY
FURTHER SOUTH AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MAY REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY.
THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WE
EXPERIENCE.

NEVERTHELESS...FEEL THAT AS SFC WARM FRONT AND WARM SECTOR TRIES TO
LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE AFTN AND THE MOST WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE...LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NE
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MO MAY BE REINVIGORATED AS CONTINUAL
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LEAD VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REACHES THE CWA. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY
AT 18-20Z AS A SFC COLD FRONT WELL NORTHWARD IN THE DAKOTA ATTM
REACHES NW MO. WHILE ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE MAY BE EXPERIENCED
TODAY...INSTABILITY PLOTS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000-2500 J/KG CAPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR BY MID-AFTN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO/. MODEST SHEAR SOME 35-45 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING MID-LVL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. POINT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE...SUGGESTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENT CLUSTERS. 0-1KM SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINAL...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY
IN DISCRETE STORMS DEPENDING ON LOCALIZED HELICITY ENHANCEMENT DUE TO
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...SHOULD SFC LOW TRY TO DEVELOP OVER NE KANSAS AS SUGGESTED
BY 00Z GFS...SFC WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE ALLOWED TO BACK MORE
THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT.

MANY OF THESE DETAILS MAY HAVE TO WAIT TO BE RESOLVED UNTIL THE
PICTURE CLEARS LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TRICKY
TODAY...WERE ON TRACK TO SEE A RATHER WARM START TO THE
DAY...THEREFORE AS WARM SECTOR LIFTS NORTHWARD /RIGHT NOW FOCUSING THE
AREA SOUTH OF HWY 36/...LOW 80S SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THIS AREA. WILL
HOLD AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI COOLER...AS POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN COOLED AIRMASS LINGERING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EXISTS.

WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FFA...PWATS WILL RUN EXCESSIVELY HIGH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ONLY
DEGRADING ALREADY LOW 1-3 HR FFG IN THE WATCH AREA.  CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON A ENE HEADING AOA 20-25 KNOTS...WHICH MAY BE
SLOW ENOUGH TO CREATE FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SE LATE THIS AFTN...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD PUSH SE AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST OUT
OF THE CWA BY 03Z.

WEEKEND CONDITIONS LOOK ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL AS COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.  ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES MADE PAST SUNDAY AS
DRY MID-LVL RIDGING LOOKS TO ESTABLISH A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER
IN THE HEARTLAND.

31

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ONGOING ISOLD TO SCT TSRA IS THE MAIN AVIATION
FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.  FEEL
THE KSTJ HAS THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING TSRA ON SITE...THUS
WILL COVER THREAT OF CONVECTION NEAR KMCI AND KMKC WITH VCSH AND CB
DESCRIPTOR. VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS REGARDING THE
DISSIPATION OF ONGOING TSRA AND REDEVELOP OF TSRA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF MISSOURI
RIVER...WHICH HAS MAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED BY ONGOING
CONVECTION...THUS HAVE A FEELING STORMS WILL INITIATE NEAR
KSTJ...BUT GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE IN VICINTY OF KMCI AND KMKC.
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF ALL THREE TAF SITES BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. THROUGH 00Z...LOW END VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4K...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 2K WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA
12K TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SF

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ008-
     MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ030-MOZ031.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ003-
     MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ021-
     MOZ022.

KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KANSAS CITY TO SOUTH OF CHILLICOTHE TO MACON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND ROUTE 36. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BY LATE THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE A
MOUND CITY KANSAS TO WARRENSBURG TO BOONVILLE LINE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY EVOLVING A SQUALL LINE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE OUTLOOK AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
115 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 PM     HAIL             ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND GUST AND FLASH FLOODING BEING
            REPORTED.

&&

ACH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
115 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ025-103-MOZ020-021-028-151845-
ATCHISON-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-LEAVENWORTH-PLATTE-
115 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN LEAVENWORTH...NORTHERN
PLATTE...SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON...SOUTHERN BUCHANAN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 114 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
AGENCY TO DEARBORN TO WESTON TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF EASTON...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DEARBORN AROUND 120 PM CDT.
  WESTON AND CAMDEN POINT AROUND 135 PM CDT.
  EDGERTON AROUND 140 PM CDT.
  TRACY AND GOWER AROUND 145 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF DE KALB...IATAN...FAUCETT AND RIDGELY ARE ALSO IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3953 9496 3963 9492 3965 9459 3951 9457
      3941 9466 3937 9482 3940 9518 3941 9517

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
116 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 AM     HAIL             3 SW CLINTON            38.34N 93.81W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       HENRY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
119 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     HAIL             3 SW CAMERON            39.71N 94.28W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       CLINTON            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
127 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     HAIL             2 W CAMERON             39.74N 94.27W
05/15/2009  E1.25 INCH       DEKALB             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
134 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 NE ST JOSEPH          39.83N 94.76W
05/15/2009                   ANDREW             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ALONG D HIGHWAY BETWEEN AVENUE CITY AND E HIGHWAY

0125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W ALBANY              40.25N 94.43W
05/15/2009                   GENTRY             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD CLOSURE ON HWY H AT HWY 136 SOUTH OF CARMACK

0125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W OSGOOD              40.20N 93.43W
05/15/2009                   GRUNDY             MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ROAD CLOSURE ON STATE ROUTE J

0125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW SPICKARD           40.21N 93.63W
05/15/2009                   GRUNDY             MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ROAD CLOSURE AT STATE ROUTE C

&&

ACH