Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 151741
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOC003-021-049-063-151800-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-090515T1800Z/
ANDREW MO-DEKALB MO-CLINTON MO-BUCHANAN MO-
1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
BUCHANAN...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB AND
SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1241 PM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF CLARKSDALE TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF AGENCY TO
AGENCY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GOWER AND CLARKSDALE AROUND 1255 PM CDT.
  STEWARTSVILLE AROUND 100 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3967 9483 3976 9475 3990 9470 3986 9446
      3965 9448 3955 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 289DEG 22KT 3985 9464 3970 9467
          3965 9473

$$

21

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 151749
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOC003-021-049-063-151800-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-090515T1800Z/
ANDREW MO-DEKALB MO-CLINTON MO-BUCHANAN MO-
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
BUCHANAN...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB AND
SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1245 PM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CLARKSDALE TO 5 MILES NORTH OF GOWER TO AGENCY...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GOWER AROUND 1255 PM CDT.
  STEWARTSVILLE AROUND 100 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3969 9474 3975 9470 3988 9467 3986 9446
      3965 9448 3955 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 289DEG 22KT 3983 9456 3968 9459
          3963 9465

$$

21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
714 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
/303 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FCST ALL
IMPACTING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TODAY.  IN THE
VERY SHORT TERM...ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD ACROSS THE 300-305K THETA-E
SFCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BANDS OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
ALONG AN AXIS FROM EMPORIA NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS CITY AND FURTHER
NE TOWARDS DAVENPORT. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED A BIT RESOLVING THIS
ELEVATED CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CONTINUED ACCAS REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS POSSIBLE.
WITH UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND INCREASING MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SVR STORM OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

WHAT THIS CONVECTION DOES THOUGH...IS THROW A BIT OF A KNOT INTO THE
SYSTEM AS FAR AS REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
AS PREVIOUS FCSTER MENTIONED...THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACING OF A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BE KEY TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL AREA
OF IMPACT THIS AFTN.  BY 12Z...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT ALONG BETWEEN THE HWY 36 AND I-70
CORRIDOR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AS LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
VEER TOWARDS DAYBREAK...LIFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE LLJ MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING HOURS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. SHOULD THIS
IDEA PAN OUT...THE SFC WARM FRONT WHICH IS SUGGESTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD UP TO OR NORTH OF THE IOWA BORDER BY EARLY AFTN...MAY STAY
FURTHER SOUTH AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MAY REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY.
THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WE
EXPERIENCE.

NEVERTHELESS...FEEL THAT AS SFC WARM FRONT AND WARM SECTOR TRIES TO
LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE AFTN AND THE MOST WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE...LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NE
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MO MAY BE REINVIGORATED AS CONTINUAL
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LEAD VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REACHES THE CWA. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY
AT 18-20Z AS A SFC COLD FRONT WELL NORTHWARD IN THE DAKOTA ATTM
REACHES NW MO. WHILE ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE MAY BE EXPERIENCED
TODAY...INSTABILITY PLOTS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000-2500 J/KG CAPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR BY MID-AFTN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO/. MODEST SHEAR SOME 35-45 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING MID-LVL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. POINT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE...SUGGESTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENT CLUSTERS. 0-1KM SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINAL...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY
IN DISCRETE STORMS DEPENDING ON LOCALIZED HELICITY ENHANCEMENT DUE TO
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...SHOULD SFC LOW TRY TO DEVELOP OVER NE KANSAS AS SUGGESTED
BY 00Z GFS...SFC WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE ALLOWED TO BACK MORE
THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT.

MANY OF THESE DETAILS MAY HAVE TO WAIT TO BE RESOLVED UNTIL THE
PICTURE CLEARS LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TRICKY
TODAY...WERE ON TRACK TO SEE A RATHER WARM START TO THE
DAY...THEREFORE AS WARM SECTOR LIFTS NORTHWARD /RIGHT NOW FOCUSING THE
AREA SOUTH OF HWY 36/...LOW 80S SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THIS AREA. WILL
HOLD AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI COOLER...AS POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN COOLED AIRMASS LINGERING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EXISTS.

WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FFA...PWATS WILL RUN EXCESSIVELY HIGH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ONLY
DEGRADING ALREADY LOW 1-3 HR FFG IN THE WATCH AREA.  CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON A ENE HEADING AOA 20-25 KNOTS...WHICH MAY BE
SLOW ENOUGH TO CREATE FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SE LATE THIS AFTN...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD PUSH SE AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST OUT
OF THE CWA BY 03Z.

WEEKEND CONDITIONS LOOK ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL AS COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.  ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES MADE PAST SUNDAY AS
DRY MID-LVL RIDGING LOOKS TO ESTABLISH A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER
IN THE HEARTLAND.

31

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ONGOING ISOLD TO SCT TSRA IS THE MAIN AVIATION
FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.  FEEL
THE KSTJ HAS THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING TSRA ON SITE...THUS
WILL COVER THREAT OF CONVECTION NEAR KMCI AND KMKC WITH VCSH AND CB
DESCRIPTOR. VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS REGARDING THE
DISSIPATION OF ONGOING TSRA AND REDEVELOP OF TSRA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF MISSOURI
RIVER...WHICH HAS MAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED BY ONGOING
CONVECTION...THUS HAVE A FEELING STORMS WILL INITIATE NEAR
KSTJ...BUT GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE IN VICINTY OF KMCI AND KMKC.
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF ALL THREE TAF SITES BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. THROUGH 00Z...LOW END VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4K...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 2K WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA
12K TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SF

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ008-
     MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ030-MOZ031.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ003-
     MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ021-
     MOZ022.

KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.

WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THIS MORNINGS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER BY MID-DAY. AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARDS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER
NOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR.  SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...IF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN
NORTH MISSOURI CREATES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THUS PROVIDING THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS TO A KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE
LINE. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STORMS WHICH REMAIN
DISCRETE IN NATURE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END
BY MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 36.

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ102-MOZ012-013-020-021-151745-
ANDREW-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DE KALB-DONIPHAN-
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BUCHANAN...EASTERN DONIPHAN...
NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN ANDREW AND SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1211 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SAVANNAH TO ELWOOD
TO 6 MILES NORTH OF RUSHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3965 9515 3976 9500 3997 9496 3990 9453
      3965 9457 3953 9484 3953 9486

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HAIL             WATHENA                 39.76N 94.95W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       DONIPHAN           KS   PUBLIC

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1213 PM     HAIL             EFFINGHAM               39.52N 95.40W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       ATCHISON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     HAIL             2 E ST JOSEPH ARPT      39.77N 94.88W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            IN ST JOSEPH

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     HAIL             1 S ST JOSEPH           39.75N 94.85W
05/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH APPROXIMATELY 45 MPH WIND
            GUSTS.

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT 36 HWY AND 29

&&

ACH