Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 151817
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
117 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOC049-063-151830-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-090515T1830Z/
DEKALB MO-CLINTON MO-
117 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
CLINTON AND SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 117 PM CDT... TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON. 
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSBORN TO 5 
MILES NORTH OF LATHROP TO PLATTSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMERON AND LATHROP AROUND 125 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK 
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3957 9448 3969 9443 3983 9441 3980 9423
      3958 9423 3949 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 288DEG 25KT 3977 9432 3962 9435
          3957 9441

$$

21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
714 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
/303 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FCST ALL
IMPACTING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TODAY.  IN THE
VERY SHORT TERM...ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD ACROSS THE 300-305K THETA-E
SFCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BANDS OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
ALONG AN AXIS FROM EMPORIA NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS CITY AND FURTHER
NE TOWARDS DAVENPORT. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED A BIT RESOLVING THIS
ELEVATED CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CONTINUED ACCAS REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS POSSIBLE.
WITH UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND INCREASING MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SVR STORM OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

WHAT THIS CONVECTION DOES THOUGH...IS THROW A BIT OF A KNOT INTO THE
SYSTEM AS FAR AS REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
AS PREVIOUS FCSTER MENTIONED...THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACING OF A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BE KEY TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL AREA
OF IMPACT THIS AFTN.  BY 12Z...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT ALONG BETWEEN THE HWY 36 AND I-70
CORRIDOR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AS LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
VEER TOWARDS DAYBREAK...LIFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE LLJ MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING HOURS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. SHOULD THIS
IDEA PAN OUT...THE SFC WARM FRONT WHICH IS SUGGESTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD UP TO OR NORTH OF THE IOWA BORDER BY EARLY AFTN...MAY STAY
FURTHER SOUTH AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MAY REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY.
THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WE
EXPERIENCE.

NEVERTHELESS...FEEL THAT AS SFC WARM FRONT AND WARM SECTOR TRIES TO
LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE AFTN AND THE MOST WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE...LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NE
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MO MAY BE REINVIGORATED AS CONTINUAL
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LEAD VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REACHES THE CWA. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY
AT 18-20Z AS A SFC COLD FRONT WELL NORTHWARD IN THE DAKOTA ATTM
REACHES NW MO. WHILE ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE MAY BE EXPERIENCED
TODAY...INSTABILITY PLOTS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000-2500 J/KG CAPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR BY MID-AFTN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO/. MODEST SHEAR SOME 35-45 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING MID-LVL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. POINT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE...SUGGESTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENT CLUSTERS. 0-1KM SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINAL...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY
IN DISCRETE STORMS DEPENDING ON LOCALIZED HELICITY ENHANCEMENT DUE TO
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...SHOULD SFC LOW TRY TO DEVELOP OVER NE KANSAS AS SUGGESTED
BY 00Z GFS...SFC WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE ALLOWED TO BACK MORE
THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT.

MANY OF THESE DETAILS MAY HAVE TO WAIT TO BE RESOLVED UNTIL THE
PICTURE CLEARS LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TRICKY
TODAY...WERE ON TRACK TO SEE A RATHER WARM START TO THE
DAY...THEREFORE AS WARM SECTOR LIFTS NORTHWARD /RIGHT NOW FOCUSING THE
AREA SOUTH OF HWY 36/...LOW 80S SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THIS AREA. WILL
HOLD AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI COOLER...AS POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN COOLED AIRMASS LINGERING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EXISTS.

WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FFA...PWATS WILL RUN EXCESSIVELY HIGH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ONLY
DEGRADING ALREADY LOW 1-3 HR FFG IN THE WATCH AREA.  CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON A ENE HEADING AOA 20-25 KNOTS...WHICH MAY BE
SLOW ENOUGH TO CREATE FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SE LATE THIS AFTN...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD PUSH SE AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST OUT
OF THE CWA BY 03Z.

WEEKEND CONDITIONS LOOK ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL AS COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.  ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES MADE PAST SUNDAY AS
DRY MID-LVL RIDGING LOOKS TO ESTABLISH A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER
IN THE HEARTLAND.

31

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ONGOING ISOLD TO SCT TSRA IS THE MAIN AVIATION
FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.  FEEL
THE KSTJ HAS THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING TSRA ON SITE...THUS
WILL COVER THREAT OF CONVECTION NEAR KMCI AND KMKC WITH VCSH AND CB
DESCRIPTOR. VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS REGARDING THE
DISSIPATION OF ONGOING TSRA AND REDEVELOP OF TSRA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF MISSOURI
RIVER...WHICH HAS MAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED BY ONGOING
CONVECTION...THUS HAVE A FEELING STORMS WILL INITIATE NEAR
KSTJ...BUT GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE IN VICINTY OF KMCI AND KMKC.
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF ALL THREE TAF SITES BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. THROUGH 00Z...LOW END VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4K...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 2K WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA
12K TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SF

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ008-
     MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ030-MOZ031.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ003-
     MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ021-
     MOZ022.

KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KANSAS CITY TO SOUTH OF CHILLICOTHE TO MACON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND ROUTE 36. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BY LATE THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE A
MOUND CITY KANSAS TO WARRENSBURG TO BOONVILLE LINE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY EVOLVING A SQUALL LINE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE OUTLOOK AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT 36 HWY AND 29

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1234 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     HAIL             3 E ST JOSEPH ARPT      39.77N 94.86W
05/15/2009  E1.50 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E ST JOSEPH ARPT      39.77N 94.86W
05/15/2009                   BUCHANAN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN IN STREET IN ST JOSEPH

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     HAIL             ATCHISON                39.56N 95.13W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       ATCHISON           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
05/15/2009                   BUCHANAN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING NEAR ST. JOSEPH CITY HALL

&&

ACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     HAIL             ST JOSEPH ARPT          39.77N 94.92W
05/15/2009  E1.50 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

ABAILEY