River Flood Warning 111, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
236 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING OUTLFOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FM JUST SOUTH OF CHILLICOTHE
EAST TO NR MACON. THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS AN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NR CHILLICOTHE WITH THE NEAR TERM TORNADO THREAT BEING AT
THE INTERSECTION OF THE TWO BOUNDARIES. THE INTERSECTION POINT WILL
TRANSLATE EAST EARLY THIS AFTN. SVR THREAT FM NR MCI TO NEAR CDJ IN
THE NR WILL MAINLY BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THREAT ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NR MKC WILL BECOME
STATIONARY NR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR A
TORNADIC THREAT OUTSIDE OF ANY BOUNDARY. MODEST SFC-6KM SHEAR OF
30-40 KNOTS WILL EXIST ACR THE SRN ONE HALF OF THE
CWA WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WEAK. REGARDLESS...MODEST DEEP SHEAR ALONG
WITH SBCAPES FM 2500-3000 J/KG IS SUFFICIENT FOR SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS AFTN MAINLY BETWEEN THE I-70 AND
ROUTE 36 CORRIDOR.

FOR LATE THIS AFTN...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS NOTED IN SERN NEBRASKA
WITH A COLD FRONT CLOSELY ON ITS HEELS. THE FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/CDFRONT WILL ENTER NWRN MO THIS AFTN. THE FRONT
WILL INITIALLY ENCOUNTER A STABLE AIR MASS IN EXTREME NWRN MO WITH THE
SVR WX THREAT MINIMAL. BY 7 PM...THE FRONT WILL INTERSECT THE ONGOING
CONVECTION NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE CONVECTION ORGANIZING
INTO A SERN MVG SQUALL LINE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND CDFNT MAY PROVIDE FOR A THREAT OF TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS
EVENING.

THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL END THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE CWA.

DB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/

..UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/303 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FCST ALL
IMPACTING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TODAY.  IN THE
VERY SHORT TERM...ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD ACROSS THE 300-305K THETA-E
SFCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BANDS OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
ALONG AN AXIS FROM EMPORIA NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS CITY AND FURTHER
NE TOWARDS DAVENPORT. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED A BIT RESOLVING THIS
ELEVATED CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CONTINUED ACCAS REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS POSSIBLE.
WITH UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND INCREASING MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SVR STORM OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

WHAT THIS CONVECTION DOES THOUGH...IS THROW A BIT OF A KNOT INTO THE
SYSTEM AS FAR AS REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
AS PREVIOUS FCSTER MENTIONED...THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACING OF A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BE KEY TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL AREA
OF IMPACT THIS AFTN.  BY 12Z...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT ALONG BETWEEN THE HWY 36 AND I-70
CORRIDOR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AS LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
VEER TOWARDS DAYBREAK...LIFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE LLJ MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING HOURS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. SHOULD THIS
IDEA PAN OUT...THE SFC WARM FRONT WHICH IS SUGGESTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD UP TO OR NORTH OF THE IOWA BORDER BY EARLY AFTN...MAY STAY
FURTHER SOUTH AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MAY REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY.
THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WE
EXPERIENCE.

NEVERTHELESS...FEEL THAT AS SFC WARM FRONT AND WARM SECTOR TRIES TO
LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE AFTN AND THE MOST WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE...LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NE
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MO MAY BE REINVIGORATED AS CONTINUAL
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LEAD VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REACHES THE CWA. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY
AT 18-20Z AS A SFC COLD FRONT WELL NORTHWARD IN THE DAKOTA ATTM
REACHES NW MO. WHILE ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE MAY BE EXPERIENCED
TODAY...INSTABILITY PLOTS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000-2500 J/KG CAPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR BY MID-AFTN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO/. MODEST SHEAR SOME 35-45 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING MID-LVL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. POINT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE...SUGGESTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENT CLUSTERS. 0-1KM SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINAL...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY
IN DISCRETE STORMS DEPENDING ON LOCALIZED HELICITY ENHANCEMENT DUE TO
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...SHOULD SFC LOW TRY TO DEVELOP OVER NE KANSAS AS SUGGESTED
BY 00Z GFS...SFC WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE ALLOWED TO BACK MORE
THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT.

MANY OF THESE DETAILS MAY HAVE TO WAIT TO BE RESOLVED UNTIL THE
PICTURE CLEARS LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TRICKY
TODAY...WERE ON TRACK TO SEE A RATHER WARM START TO THE
DAY...THEREFORE AS WARM SECTOR LIFTS NORTHWARD /RIGHT NOW FOCUSING THE
AREA SOUTH OF HWY 36/...LOW 80S SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THIS AREA. WILL
HOLD AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI COOLER...AS POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN COOLED AIRMASS LINGERING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EXISTS.

WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FFA...PWATS WILL RUN EXCESSIVELY HIGH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ONLY
DEGRADING ALREADY LOW 1-3 HR FFG IN THE WATCH AREA.  CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON A ENE HEADING AOA 20-25 KNOTS...WHICH MAY BE
SLOW ENOUGH TO CREATE FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SE LATE THIS AFTN...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD PUSH SE AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST OUT
OF THE CWA BY 03Z.

WEEKEND CONDITIONS LOOK ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL AS COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.  ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES MADE PAST SUNDAY AS
DRY MID-LVL RIDGING LOOKS TO ESTABLISH A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER
IN THE HEARTLAND.

31

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
02Z...UNTIL A CDFNT MOVES THROUGH BTWN 00Z-02Z. CONVECTION IS BEING
GENERATED BY WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOW OVER AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NR
KMKC. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KC METRO
TERMINALS THIS AFTN AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY. THE KSTJ
CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKER AND CONSIDERABLY MORE SCT. OTHERWISE...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE PSBL THIS EVENING AFT FROPA WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ALSO PSBL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS INCREASING AFT 03Z.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ008-MOZ016-MOZ017-
     MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ030-MOZ031.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-
     MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ021-MOZ022.

KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
KANSAS CITY TO SOUTH OF CHILLICOTHE TO MACON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND ROUTE 36. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY 6 PM. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BY LATE THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE A
MOUND CITY KANSAS TO WARRENSBURG TO BOONVILLE LINE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LIKELY EVOLVING A SQUALL LINE. THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE OUTLOOK AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ103-104-MOZ028-029-152115-
CLAY-LEAVENWORTH-PLATTE-WYANDOTTE-
347 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LEAVENWORTH...NORTHERN WYANDOTTE...
SOUTHERN PLATTE AND SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 347 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PLATTE WOODS TO 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF EASTON TO MCLOUTH TO LECOMPTON TO BERRYTON...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3918 9518 3936 9517 3940 9503 3923 9448
      3915 9469 3904 9507 3896 9514 3897 9518
      3907 9519

21

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
355 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             10 N KANSAS CITY        39.27N 94.55W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       CLAY               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 MILES NORTH OF MISSOURI RIVER ON INTERSTATE 435.

&&

ADOLPHSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
357 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LIBERTY                 39.24N 94.42W
05/15/2009  M2.60 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            MEASURED THIS AFTERNOON

&&

ABAILEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
357 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOZ025-032-033-040-152130-
CHARITON-HOWARD-MACON-RANDOLPH-
357 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN CHARITON...NORTHERN
HOWARD...RANDOLPH AND SOUTHERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 357 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MARCELINE TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SALISBURY TO SALISBURY TO 8
MILES SOUTH OF KEYTESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HUNTSVILLE AROUND 420 PM CDT.
  CAIRO AROUND 425 PM CDT.
  MOBERLY AROUND 430 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF PRAIRIE HILL...WIEN...DALTON...CLIFTON HILL...
JACKSONVILLE AND EXCELLO ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3939 9240 3927 9266 3928 9296 3930 9296
      3931 9298 3932 9306 3940 9303 3942 9290
      3951 9285 3966 9291 3972 9248 3953 9238

21