Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 151952
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
252 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOC003-087-152005-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090515T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANDREW MO-HOLT MO-
252 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT
AND SOUTHERN ANDREW COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO 
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN 
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3964 9555 3965 9533 3984 9532 3987 9505
      3990 9500 3989 9494 3984 9494 3981 9489
      3982 9466 3963 9462 3952 9555

$$

KSC005-043-MOC021-152000-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-090515T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DONIPHAN KS-ATCHISON KS-BUCHANAN MO-
252 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BUCHANAN...NORTHERN
ATCHISON AND DONIPHAN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 250 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT FLASH 
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE WARNED. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS 
WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED SHORTLY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...ELWOOD...ST.
JOSEPH...TROY...WATHENA...AGENCY...DENTON...LANCASTER...MUSCOTAH AND
RUSHVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON
FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9555 3965 9533 3984 9532 3987 9505
      3990 9500 3989 9494 3984 9494 3981 9489
      3982 9466 3963 9462 3952 9555

$$

CDB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
714 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
/303 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FCST ALL
IMPACTING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT TODAY.  IN THE
VERY SHORT TERM...ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD ACROSS THE 300-305K THETA-E
SFCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BANDS OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
ALONG AN AXIS FROM EMPORIA NORTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS CITY AND FURTHER
NE TOWARDS DAVENPORT. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED A BIT RESOLVING THIS
ELEVATED CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CONTINUED ACCAS REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS POSSIBLE.
WITH UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND INCREASING MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SVR STORM OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

WHAT THIS CONVECTION DOES THOUGH...IS THROW A BIT OF A KNOT INTO THE
SYSTEM AS FAR AS REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
AS PREVIOUS FCSTER MENTIONED...THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACING OF A SFC
WARM FRONT WILL BE KEY TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL AREA
OF IMPACT THIS AFTN.  BY 12Z...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT ALONG BETWEEN THE HWY 36 AND I-70
CORRIDOR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AS LLJ CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
VEER TOWARDS DAYBREAK...LIFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE LLJ MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING HOURS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. SHOULD THIS
IDEA PAN OUT...THE SFC WARM FRONT WHICH IS SUGGESTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD UP TO OR NORTH OF THE IOWA BORDER BY EARLY AFTN...MAY STAY
FURTHER SOUTH AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MAY REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY.
THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WE
EXPERIENCE.

NEVERTHELESS...FEEL THAT AS SFC WARM FRONT AND WARM SECTOR TRIES TO
LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE AFTN AND THE MOST WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE NE...LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NE
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MO MAY BE REINVIGORATED AS CONTINUAL
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LEAD VORT MAX CURRENTLY
LIFTING OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REACHES THE CWA. THIS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY
AT 18-20Z AS A SFC COLD FRONT WELL NORTHWARD IN THE DAKOTA ATTM
REACHES NW MO. WHILE ONLY LIMITED SUNSHINE MAY BE EXPERIENCED
TODAY...INSTABILITY PLOTS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000-2500 J/KG CAPE IN
THE WARM SECTOR BY MID-AFTN /ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO/. MODEST SHEAR SOME 35-45 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING MID-LVL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. POINT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE...SUGGESTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENT CLUSTERS. 0-1KM SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINAL...HOWEVER COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY
IN DISCRETE STORMS DEPENDING ON LOCALIZED HELICITY ENHANCEMENT DUE TO
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...SHOULD SFC LOW TRY TO DEVELOP OVER NE KANSAS AS SUGGESTED
BY 00Z GFS...SFC WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE ALLOWED TO BACK MORE
THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT.

MANY OF THESE DETAILS MAY HAVE TO WAIT TO BE RESOLVED UNTIL THE
PICTURE CLEARS LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TRICKY
TODAY...WERE ON TRACK TO SEE A RATHER WARM START TO THE
DAY...THEREFORE AS WARM SECTOR LIFTS NORTHWARD /RIGHT NOW FOCUSING THE
AREA SOUTH OF HWY 36/...LOW 80S SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THIS AREA. WILL
HOLD AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI COOLER...AS POTENTIAL FOR A
RAIN COOLED AIRMASS LINGERING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EXISTS.

WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FFA...PWATS WILL RUN EXCESSIVELY HIGH
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ONLY
DEGRADING ALREADY LOW 1-3 HR FFG IN THE WATCH AREA.  CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ON A ENE HEADING AOA 20-25 KNOTS...WHICH MAY BE
SLOW ENOUGH TO CREATE FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SE LATE THIS AFTN...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD PUSH SE AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERING SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST OUT
OF THE CWA BY 03Z.

WEEKEND CONDITIONS LOOK ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL AS COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.  ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES MADE PAST SUNDAY AS
DRY MID-LVL RIDGING LOOKS TO ESTABLISH A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER
IN THE HEARTLAND.

31

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ONGOING ISOLD TO SCT TSRA IS THE MAIN AVIATION
FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.  FEEL
THE KSTJ HAS THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING TSRA ON SITE...THUS
WILL COVER THREAT OF CONVECTION NEAR KMCI AND KMKC WITH VCSH AND CB
DESCRIPTOR. VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS REGARDING THE
DISSIPATION OF ONGOING TSRA AND REDEVELOP OF TSRA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF MISSOURI
RIVER...WHICH HAS MAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED BY ONGOING
CONVECTION...THUS HAVE A FEELING STORMS WILL INITIATE NEAR
KSTJ...BUT GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE IN VICINTY OF KMCI AND KMKC.
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF ALL THREE TAF SITES BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z. THROUGH 00Z...LOW END VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4K...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 2K WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR MOISTURE...BUT EXPECT EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA
12K TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SF

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ008-
     MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ023-MOZ024-MOZ030-MOZ031.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR MOZ003-
     MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ021-
     MOZ022.

KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING...AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.

WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THIS MORNINGS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE IOWA BORDER BY MID-DAY. AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARDS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AFTER
NOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR.  SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...IF THE MORNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN
NORTH MISSOURI CREATES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THUS PROVIDING THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS TO A KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE
LINE. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STORMS WHICH REMAIN
DISCRETE IN NATURE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END
BY MIDNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 36.

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ102-MOZ002-011-012-020-151715-
ANDREW-BUCHANAN-DONIPHAN-HOLT-NODAWAY-
1145 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DONIPHAN...EASTERN HOLT...NORTHERN
BUCHANAN...SOUTHERN NODAWAY AND WESTERN ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM
CDT...

AT 1143 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MAITLAND TO OREGON
TO DENTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FILLMORE AND TROY AROUND 1155 AM CDT.
  SAVANNAH...AMAZONIA AND WATHENA AROUND 1210 PM CDT.
  ELWOOD AROUND 1215 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF FANNING...SEVERANCE...BENDENA...GRAHAM...ROSENDALE...
BOLCKOW...BARNARD...ST. JOSEPH AIRPORT AND REA ARE ALSO IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3995 9523 4020 9520 4025 9480 3999 9473
      3970 9489 3971 9533 3982 9534

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ025-102-151730-
ATCHISON-DONIPHAN-
1154 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ATCHISON AND SOUTHWESTERN DONIPHAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1152 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WILLIS TO MUSCOTAH
TO DENISON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  EFFINGHAM AROUND 1205 PM CDT.
  LANCASTER AND DENTON AROUND 1210 PM CDT.
  NORTONVILLE AROUND 1215 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF ARRINGTON...HURON...FARMINGTON...CUMMINGS AND BENDENA
ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3954 9557 3956 9555 3964 9556 3965 9555
      3965 9534 3974 9533 3975 9512 3962 9511
      3941 9520 3941 9536 3941 9556 3941 9557

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E HARRIS              40.31N 93.29W
05/15/2009                   SULLIVAN           MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE ZZ CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E KIRKSVILLE          40.20N 92.50W
05/15/2009                   ADAIR              MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE 11 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

ABAILEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

KSZ102-MOZ012-013-020-021-151745-
ANDREW-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DE KALB-DONIPHAN-
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR BUCHANAN...EASTERN DONIPHAN...
NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN ANDREW AND SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1211 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SAVANNAH TO ELWOOD
TO 6 MILES NORTH OF RUSHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3965 9515 3976 9500 3997 9496 3990 9453
      3965 9457 3953 9484 3953 9486

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HAIL             WATHENA                 39.76N 94.95W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       DONIPHAN           KS   PUBLIC

&&

ACH