Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 152151
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
451 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOC007-019-127-137-173-205-152215-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0074.000000T0000Z-090515T2215Z/
BOONE MO-AUDRAIN MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
451 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN SHELBY...SOUTHWESTERN MARION...WESTERN RALLS...MONROE...
AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN BOONE COUNTIES...

AT 447 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GRANVILLE
TO HOLLIDAY TO CENTRALIA TO HARRISBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARIS...CENTRALIA...SANTA FE...MEXICO...MONROE CITY...HALLSVILLE...
  PERRY...HUNNEWELL...STOUTSVILLE...FLORIDA...INDIAN CREEK...
  THOMPSON...VANDIVER...THE LANDING AND RUSH HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MADISON WITH 
THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...AND POWER LINES 
HAVE BEEN BLOWN DOWN AS WELL. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING 
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 9244 3926 9232 3976 9230 3969 9156
      3941 9158 3923 9167 3906 9192 3907 9213
      3906 9214 3909 9252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 277DEG 34KT 3960 9204 3945 9204
          3928 9211 3915 9240

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
326 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/323 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
VERY ACTIVE NIGHT ON TAP WITH BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING.  THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPPED NEAR A LINE FROM
KTAZ TO KMBY TO NEAR KSTJ INTO SE NEBRAKSA.  DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SFC TEMPS IN THE 80S
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SBCAPES OF
3000+ J/KG. THIS BOUNDARY REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM THE CURRENT
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS IA...NE MO INTO NRN IL IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING AND THEN THE
ENCROACHING CDFNT WILL COME INTO PLAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN MO HAVE ALREADY BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MAIN ATTENTION HOWEVER
TURNS TO THE EVOLVING ELONGATED BOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NW
MO. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY GRADIENT...FEEDING ON THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR
AND FORCING ENHANCED VIA A BROAD 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 35+ KTS FROM ROUGHLY I-70 NWD CONTINUES TO FAVOR
ORGANIZED LINEAR/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES ALONG WITH HP THEMES. THE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ALSO CHARACTERIZED
BY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 M2/S2 SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...SPCLY IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. LASTLY THE EAST-
WEST ORIENTATION OF THE CURRENT COMPLEX...CURRENT UPWIND
GROWTH IN ERN KS...AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED UPWIND
PROPAGATION ON THE WRN FLANK IS SUPPORTIVE OF ECHO TRAINING AND
ATTENDANT HVY RAIN WITH THE HIGH RAFL RATES. I EXPECT A LARGE
ELONGATED WEST-EAST BOWY COMPLEX TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE
EVENING...GRADUALLY SINKING SEWD AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND I WILL BE EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SOUTH THROUGH THE I-70 CORIDOOR.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SE MO AND SRN IL AT 12Z SAT
WITH ANY REMAINING PCPN THREAT CONFINED TO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL USHER
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS A RATHER POTENT SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE MIDDLE MS VLY.  THIS 1030+ MB SFC HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOL
WEATHER FOR LATE MAY WITH TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL.

A MODERATION WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE ELONGATED HIGH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE SOUTHEAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SLY ON THE BACK SIDE.
THE LARGE ELONGATED HIGH WILL ALSO IMPEDE THE RETURN OF QUALITY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...
/743 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH TIME. NEW
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS IS FORMING AT THE NOSE OF THE 8H
LOW-LEVEL JET (REGION OF HIGHER THETA E AIR. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUMPED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW IS LOCATED FROM
NORTHEAST KANSAS TO JUST SOUTH OF PITTSFIELD ILLINOIS THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
A EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST DIRECTION. EXPECT FURTHER CONVECTION
TO PERSIST OVER THIS AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING THEN WEAKEN
WITH TIME. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WTIH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MOVING THROUGH THE STL AREA AROUND 0500 - 0600 UTC. MUCH
OF THE ORGANIZED LINE TO BOWING LINE SEGMENT CONVECTION WILL PASS
THROUGH STL AREA BETWEEN 01-03 UTC. WE HAVE PLACE SURFACE GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 KTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE ORGANIZED LINE FOR A
PERIOD OF ONE TO THREE HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 20 -
25 KFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY..THEN
SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW.

PRZYBYLINSKI

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BOONE-CALLAWAY-
     COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONITEAU-
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-
     WARREN.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN-KNOX-
     LEWIS-MARION-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-
     BROWN IL-PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
348 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN
A FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE
ILLINOIS RIVER AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT CHESTER. PLEASE SEE
THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER AND AT CHESTER ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE
SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

GLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
341 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N EWING               40.02N  91.71W
05/15/2009  E1.00 INCH       LEWIS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL ESTIMATED

0339 PM     HAIL             1 N EWING               40.02N  91.71W
05/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       LEWIS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL ESTIMATED

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901993
EVENT NUMBER LSX0901994

WB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
401 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     HAIL             1 SW VERSAILLES         39.87N  90.67W
05/15/2009  M0.75 INCH       BROWN              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901995

WB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
403 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEWISTOWN               40.08N  91.81W
05/15/2009                   LEWIS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS THE COUNTY. SOME
            ROADS COVERED. DITCHES FULL OR OVERFLOWING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901996

WB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N GOLDEN              40.12N  91.02W
05/15/2009                   ADAMS              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY 94 NORTH OF GOLDEN.
            DISTANCE ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901997

TRUETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOZ034-041-042-152215-
AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-MONROE MO-
423 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONROE...WESTERN AUDRAIN AND
NORTHERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 422 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CAIRO TO MOBERLY TO
HIGBEE TO FAYETTE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CENTRALIA...
PARIS...SANTA FE...WOODLAWN...MADISON...STURGEON...GRANVILLE...
HALLSVILLE...MURRY...DUNCANS BRIDGE...HARRISBURG...HOLLIDAY...
STOUTSVILLE...THOMPSON AND FLORIDA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W CAMP POINT          40.04N  91.09W
05/15/2009                   ADAMS              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT HIGHWAY 24 JUST WEST OF CAMP
            POINT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901998

TRUETT