Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 152353
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
653 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ILC013-061-083-149-MOC113-163-160003-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-090516T0000Z/
JERSEY IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-PIKE IL-LINCOLN MO-PIKE MO-
653 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN GREENE...CALHOUN AND
WESTERN JERSEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND EASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE
AT 700 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3955 9057 3954 9057 3953 9058 3953 9040
      3918 9042 3892 9051 3893 9066 3894 9067
      3893 9070 3896 9120 3926 9108 3959 9107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 277DEG 31KT 3939 9056 3919 9057
          3902 9064

$$

TES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
326 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/323 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
VERY ACTIVE NIGHT ON TAP WITH BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING.  THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPPED NEAR A LINE FROM
KTAZ TO KMBY TO NEAR KSTJ INTO SE NEBRAKSA.  DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SFC TEMPS IN THE 80S
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SBCAPES OF
3000+ J/KG. THIS BOUNDARY REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM THE CURRENT
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS IA...NE MO INTO NRN IL IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING AND THEN THE
ENCROACHING CDFNT WILL COME INTO PLAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN MO HAVE ALREADY BEEN PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MAIN ATTENTION HOWEVER
TURNS TO THE EVOLVING ELONGATED BOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NW
MO. THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY/INSTABILITY GRADIENT...FEEDING ON THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR
AND FORCING ENHANCED VIA A BROAD 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 35+ KTS FROM ROUGHLY I-70 NWD CONTINUES TO FAVOR
ORGANIZED LINEAR/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES ALONG WITH HP THEMES. THE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ALSO CHARACTERIZED
BY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 M2/S2 SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...SPCLY IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. LASTLY THE EAST-
WEST ORIENTATION OF THE CURRENT COMPLEX...CURRENT UPWIND
GROWTH IN ERN KS...AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED UPWIND
PROPAGATION ON THE WRN FLANK IS SUPPORTIVE OF ECHO TRAINING AND
ATTENDANT HVY RAIN WITH THE HIGH RAFL RATES. I EXPECT A LARGE
ELONGATED WEST-EAST BOWY COMPLEX TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE
EVENING...GRADUALLY SINKING SEWD AHEAD OF THE ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND I WILL BE EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SOUTH THROUGH THE I-70 CORIDOOR.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SE MO AND SRN IL AT 12Z SAT
WITH ANY REMAINING PCPN THREAT CONFINED TO THE AREA AHEAD OF IT
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND WILL USHER
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS A RATHER POTENT SFC HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE MIDDLE MS VLY.  THIS 1030+ MB SFC HIGH WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY RESULTING IN DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOL
WEATHER FOR LATE MAY WITH TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL.

A MODERATION WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY AS THE ELONGATED HIGH CONTINUES TO
SETTLE SOUTHEAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SLY ON THE BACK SIDE.
THE LARGE ELONGATED HIGH WILL ALSO IMPEDE THE RETURN OF QUALITY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

GLASS

&&

.AVIATION...
/743 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH TIME. NEW
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS IS FORMING AT THE NOSE OF THE 8H
LOW-LEVEL JET (REGION OF HIGHER THETA E AIR. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUMPED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW IS LOCATED FROM
NORTHEAST KANSAS TO JUST SOUTH OF PITTSFIELD ILLINOIS THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
A EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST DIRECTION. EXPECT FURTHER CONVECTION
TO PERSIST OVER THIS AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING THEN WEAKEN
WITH TIME. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WTIH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MOVING THROUGH THE STL AREA AROUND 0500 - 0600 UTC. MUCH
OF THE ORGANIZED LINE TO BOWING LINE SEGMENT CONVECTION WILL PASS
THROUGH STL AREA BETWEEN 01-03 UTC. WE HAVE PLACE SURFACE GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 KTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE ORGANIZED LINE FOR A
PERIOD OF ONE TO THREE HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 20 -
25 KFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY..THEN
SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW.

PRZYBYLINSKI

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BOONE-CALLAWAY-
     COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONITEAU-
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-
     WARREN.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN-KNOX-
     LEWIS-MARION-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-
     BROWN IL-PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
348 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN
A FLOODING THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE
ILLINOIS RIVER AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT CHESTER. PLEASE SEE
THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER AND AT CHESTER ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE
SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

GLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
548 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL             MIDWAY                  38.98N  92.45W
05/15/2009  M1.75 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902014

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
549 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     CURRYVILLE              39.35N  91.34W
05/15/2009  E60 MPH          PIKE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

0545 PM     HAIL             CURRYVILLE              39.35N  91.34W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       PIKE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902015
EVENT NUMBER LSX0902016

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
550 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
05/15/2009  M0.88 INCH       BOONE              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902017

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
555 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     TSTM WND GST     PERRY                   39.78N  90.75W
05/15/2009  E50 MPH          PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS

0544 PM     HAIL             PERRY                   39.78N  90.75W
05/15/2009  E0.25 INCH       PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902018
EVENT NUMBER LSX0902019

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
558 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
05/15/2009  E0.70 INCH       BOONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR I70 AND HIGHWAY 63

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902020

GKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
604 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
05/15/2009                   BOONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1 FEET OF WATER ON PARIS ROAD A LITTLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
            63...POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET OF WATER ON VANDIVER
            EAST OF PARIS I

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902021

GKS