Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1154 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.UPDATE...
/1152 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
HEADS UP THAT WE WILL BE EXPANDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHWARD FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TO ROUGHLY ALONG AND N OF A
MEXICO...PITTSFIELD IL LINE. SEVERAL MESO SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING
THAT BOW DVLPG OVR NW MO WL CONT TO WORK E-SE...SPREADING HEAVY
RAIN THREAT A BIT FURTHER S. WILL ALSO ADD HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
TO THIS AREA AS WELL.

PRODUCTS COMING OUT ASAP.

TRUETT

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/419 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
A LOT TO DEAL WITH ONCE AGAIN. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN & CENTRAL
MO/WEST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY...THOUGH MOST AGREE
ON AN MCS DEVELOPING AND SLIDING EAST NORTHEAST. PLACEMENT IS A
DIFFERENT STORY...WILL SIDE MORE WITH NAM/GFS WITH FURTHER NORTH
PLACEMENT WITH SOUTHERN EDGE ALONG A COLUMBIA TO PITTSFIELD LINE.
JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF THIS LINE FOR TODAY. MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED RATHER BENIGN. ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS LAID OUT FROM JUST
NORTH OF MCI TO JUST NORTH OF STL THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
IL. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM MCS COULD SLOW ITS PROGRESS NORTHWARD. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THIS...AS THIS COULD AFFECT DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MAIN COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH.
KEPT FF WATCH GOING FOR KNOX AND LEWIS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
NUMBERS ARE BELOW AN INCH DUE TO  HEAVY RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW 80S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FURTHER NORTH.

FOR TONIGHT...COLD FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING INTO CWA BY 00Z WITH IT
MOVING THOUGH KUIN AND KCOU BETWEEN 03Z/04Z...THROUGH KSTL/KSUS
BETWEEN 06Z/07Z AND KFAM BY 13Z.  GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG AT 00Z WHILE THE NAM HAS ABOUT
HALF THAT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SEVERE
CONVECTION AT 40-50KTS ON BOTH MODELS. SO HAVE BROKEN 12 HOUR POP
INTO TWO 6 HOUR GRIDS FOR TONIGHT DUE TO SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THIS...RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END QUICKLY ONCE BOUNDARY EXITS REGION. KEPT VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRY
AFTER THAT. AS FOR TEMPS...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO MID 60S FAR SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S.

BEYOND TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE EXTENDED...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION...
/743 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH TIME. NEW
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS IS FORMING AT THE NOSE OF THE 8H
LOW-LEVEL JET (REGION OF HIGHER THETA E AIR. WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUMPED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW IS LOCATED FROM
NORTHEAST KANSAS TO JUST SOUTH OF PITTSFIELD ILLINOIS THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
A EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST DIRECTION. EXPECT FURTHER CONVECTION
TO PERSIST OVER THIS AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING THEN WEAKEN
WITH TIME. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WTIH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MOVING THROUGH THE STL AREA AROUND 0500 - 0600 UTC. MUCH
OF THE ORGANIZED LINE TO BOWING LINE SEGMENT CONVECTION WILL PASS
THROUGH STL AREA BETWEEN 01-03 UTC. WE HAVE PLACE SURFACE GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 KTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE ORGANIZED LINE FOR A
PERIOD OF ONE TO THREE HOURS. LOW CLOUDS WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 20 -
25 KFT EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY..THEN
SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW.

PRZYBYLINSKI

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR AUDRAIN-KNOX-
     LEWIS-MARION-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-
     BROWN IL-PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
444 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
444 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE
WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION THIS
MORNING. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN...PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES AT SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE
ILLINOIS RIVER AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT CHESTER. PLEASE SEE
THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER AND AT CHESTER ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE
SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BYRD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
222 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

MOZ026-027-152015-
MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
222 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SHELBY AND MARION
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WARREN...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONROE
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PALMYRA...HANNIBAL...
WARREN...PHILADELPHIA AND TAYLOR.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
233 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     HAIL             5 S URSA                40.00N  91.37W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901978

WB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
235 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BETHEL                  39.88N  92.02W
05/15/2009  M2.00 INCH       SHELBY             MO   PUBLIC

            2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 40 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901979

WB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
241 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HAIL             QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
05/15/2009  E0.75 INCH       ADAMS              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901980

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
242 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             MONROE CITY             39.65N  91.73W
05/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       MONROE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901981

WB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
243 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     HAIL             MONROE CITY             39.65N  91.73W
05/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       MONROE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0901982

DYE