Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATING TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH IN THE EAST. WATCHING STORMS
EXPLODE IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
AND THESE STORMS ARE IMMERSED WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW
LEVEL ROTATION. WARM FRONT IS IN THE PARIS VICINITY ATTM WHICH
WILL ENHANCE TORNADO THREAT. WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE
METROPLEX AREA...BUT WILL NOT HESITATE TO EXPAND IT WESTWARD BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT THINKING IS TOR
THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008/

AVIATION...
545 PM
THIS TAF PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS. EXPECT PRECIP
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH METROPLEX AIFPORTS SEEING SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE EVENING CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS
BY LATE EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE DIP INTO IFR RANGE DEPENDING ON
PRECIP. FRONT SHOULD PASS METROPLEX JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY. 84

DISCUSSION...
242 PM
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG
A DRY LINE WHICH STRETCHED FROM ALTUS TO SWEETWATER TO NEAR FORT
STOCKTON. A WARM FRONT RAN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ALTUS TO
ARDMORE TO PARIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TOMORROW. AS THIS
OCCURS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS REMAINS CAPPED BUT IS IN THE PROCESS
OF ERODING. A 19Z SOUNDING WILL CONFIRM THIS. VERY MOIST GULF AIR
HAS ADVECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH DEWPOINTS COMMONLY IN THE
60S. SKIES ARE CLEARING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ALLOWING
FOR DECENT INSOLATION. RESULTANT SBCAPES OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG AND
AMPLE SHEAR WILL FOSTER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRY LINE
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

STORM MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS AS THE COLD FRONT
CATCHES UP WITH THE DRY LINE LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE. GREATEST THREAT WILL THEN
BECOME FLASH FLOODING WITH HPC FORECASTING 24 HR QPF AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 5 INCHES ALONG THE RED RIVER. MOST NORTH TEXANS CAN EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 00Z THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

RAIN PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME WRAP-
AROUND PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERNS FLATTENS OUT FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR NORTH TEXAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.  SH/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  63  43  66  41 / 100 100  90   5   0
WACO, TX              63  65  46  68  42 / 100 100  80   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  65  44  59  38 / 100 100 100  10   0
DENTON, TX            57  59  42  64  39 / 100 100  80   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          61  64  45  64  37 / 100 100  90   5   0
DALLAS, TX            61  65  44  67  45 / 100 100  90   5   0
TERRELL, TX           64  65  42  64  40 / 100 100  90   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         64  65  44  67  41 / 100 100  90   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            63  66  44  71  41 / 100 100  80   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
322 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE
MODERATE RISK IS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A GRAHAM TO FORT WORTH TO
WACO TO TEMPLE LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG A DRYLINE
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPAND EASTWARD TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THREATS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO
GAINESVILLE LINE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
635 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

TXZ104-180000-
COLLIN TX-
635 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN COLLIN COUNTY

AT 635 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF WYLIE...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FARMERSVILLE.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL TO 1/2 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3336 9645 3336 9638 3334 9636 3335 9633
      3335 9628 3323 9628 3300 9630 3298 9639
      3299 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 185DEG 30KT 3305 9635

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     COMMERCE                33.24N  95.90W
03/17/2008                   HUNT               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAMS REPORT FUNNEL CLOUD ON HIGHWAY 50 IN COMMERCE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE COMMERCE           33.26N  95.88W
03/17/2008                   HUNT               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ON HWY. 24 NORTHEAST OF COMMERCE. POSSIBLE
            TORNADIC DAMAGE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

TXZ093-180045-
GRAYSON TX-
722 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 722 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF SHERMAN...MOVING NORTH AT 35
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DENISON...KNOLLWOOD...
POTTSBORO...SHERMAN...HENDRIX AND EISENHOWER STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3391 9666 3387 9659 3384 9657 3383 9651
      3379 9648 3380 9644 3375 9637 3356 9650
      3363 9670
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 201DEG 32KT 3368 9656

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
724 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

TXZ094-180100-
FANNIN TX-
724 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTY

AT 724 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF COMMERCE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HONEY GROVE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
200 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3373 9595 3362 9585 3344 9586 3340 9592
      3340 9601 3339 9602 3337 9616 3336 9619
      3337 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 212DEG 29KT 3336 9607

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