River Flood Warning 22, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE WACO AREA BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING...SCATTERED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY AFFECT THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2-3SM.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM FORT WORTH TO NEAR GOLDTHWAITE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE ALSO BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. THESE
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. CEILINGS ARE THE
TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST AS THEY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATER TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS MAY
AT TIMES BRIEFLY LOWER INTO IFR OR RAISE INTO VFR.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS ALONG AND BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED AND IS RESULTING
IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. WE
HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES. EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN AREA TO SHIFT EAST WITH
TIME. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS LOCATED. THE RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
AND SHOULD FINALLY END ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES
OF RAIN IS STILL LIKELY IN MANY AREAS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. THE ECM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES FORECASTS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TODAY SINCE TEMPERATURES
AT SUNRISE WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE DAYTIME HIGH. CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY IN OVERNIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THE SUN WILL
MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. EXPECT A SMALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  43  67  43  73 / 100  80   5   0   0
WACO, TX              69  45  68  42  72 / 100  60   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             72  43  64  39  68 / 100 100  40   0   0
DENTON, TX            63  41  65  39  69 / 100  80   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          65  43  66  39  69 / 100  90  20   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  45  65  43  73 / 100  90  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  44  65  42  71 / 100  90  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         70  45  66  41  71 / 100  70   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  43  69  42  73 / 100  60   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

82/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
CAMERON...CORSICANA.....SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO END EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

58/82

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ142-181115-
MILLS TX-
547 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MILLS COUNTY

AT 547 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF RICHLAND SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTH AT 50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GOLDTHWAITE AND MULLIN.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3141 9873 3139 9875 3147 9897 3161 9879
      3169 9875 3172 9849 3149 9830 3147 9831
      3129 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 1047Z 194DEG 47KT 3137 9898

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ141-181200-
COMANCHE TX-
631 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY

AT 631 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF EARLY...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DE LEON.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3226 9855 3217 9850 3215 9846 3212 9845
      3210 9844 3208 9844 3182 9875 3209 9892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1131Z 194DEG 50KT 3194 9890

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ129-181200-
EASTLAND TX-
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 633 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EASTLAND...MOVING NORTH AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE EASTLAND AND RANGER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9881 3252 9848 3248 9847 3230 9848
      3222 9866 3230 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 1133Z 190DEG 38KT 3231 9874

SCHULTZ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
755 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ101-102-117-181330-
JACK TX-WISE TX-PARKER TX-
755 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN JACK COUNTY
  NORTHERN PARKER COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 755 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JACKSBORO TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE COOL...JACKSBORO...
SPRINGTOWN AND MINERAL WELLS STATE PARK.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3321 9835 3332 9788 3298 9756 3275 9805
      3299 9806 3301 9822
TIME...MOT...LOC 1255Z 237DEG 33KT 3317 9825 3281 9802

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
851 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ118-133-181415-
TARRANT TX-JOHNSON TX-
851 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 851 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALVARADO...MOVING NORTH AT
55 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALVARADO...ARLINGTON...
BURLESON...DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS...EVERMAN...FOREST HILL...
KENNEDALE...MANSFIELD...PANTEGO AND RENDON.

PEA-SIZED HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3240 9737 3276 9727 3272 9703 3268 9703
      3238 9717
TIME...MOT...LOC 1351Z 196DEG 48KT 3247 9724

SCHULTZ