River Flood Warning 25, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 131 FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THIS MEAN ALL OF NORTH TEXAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
SHERMAN TO WAXAHACHIE TO LAMPASAS IS NOW UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.
THIS IS CONSIDERED A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. TORNADO PARAMETERS SUCH AS THE
EHI AND VGP ARE EXTREMELY HIGH AS WELL. SH/13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THIS WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM.  SH/13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN IS OVER THE CENTER OF THE CWA WITH MOVEMENT
TO THE NNE AROUND 35 MPH. SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
NOTED OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT THESE SHOULD FILL IN AS MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP TO THE SSE. THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THIS AIR
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND IS LARGELY UNTAPPED. ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMP AND DP TRENDS. SH/13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE WACO AREA BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING...SCATTERED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY AFFECT THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2-3SM.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM FORT WORTH TO NEAR GOLDTHWAITE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE ALSO BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. THESE
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. CEILINGS ARE THE
TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST AS THEY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATER TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS MAY
AT TIMES BRIEFLY LOWER INTO IFR OR RAISE INTO VFR.

82/JLD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS ALONG AND BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED AND IS RESULTING
IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. WE
HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES. EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN AREA TO SHIFT EAST WITH
TIME. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS LOCATED. THE RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
AND SHOULD FINALLY END ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES
OF RAIN IS STILL LIKELY IN MANY AREAS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. THE ECM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES FORECASTS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TODAY SINCE TEMPERATURES
AT SUNRISE WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE DAYTIME HIGH. CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY IN OVERNIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THE SUN WILL
MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. EXPECT A SMALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  43  67  43 / 100  80  10   0
WACO, TX              73  45  68  42 / 100  60   0   0
PARIS, TX             72  43  64  39 / 100 100  40   0
DENTON, TX            63  41  65  39 / 100  80  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          72  43  66  39 / 100  90  20   0
DALLAS, TX            73  45  65  43 / 100  90  10   0
TERRELL, TX           73  44  65  42 / 100  90  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         73  45  66  41 / 100  70  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            72  43  69  42 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

13/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
CAMERON...CORSICANA.....SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO END EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

58/82

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1145 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ119-134-181715-
DALLAS TX-ELLIS TX-
1145 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  DALLAS COUNTY
  NORTH CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY

AT 1145 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HIGHLAND PARK TO 2 MILES NORTH OF WAXAHACHIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BALCH SPRINGS...COCKRELL
HILL...DALLAS...DESOTO...FERRIS...GARLAND...GLENN HEIGHTS...HIGHLAND
PARK...HUTCHINS...LANCASTER...MESQUITE...OAK LEAF...OVILLA...RED
OAK...ROWLETT...SACHSE...SEAGOVILLE...SUNNYVALE...UNIVERSITY PARK AND
WILMER.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3240 9692 3286 9691 3299 9661 3299 9653
      3298 9652 3252 9654
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 236DEG 22KT 3279 9683 3244 9683

07/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1157 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ157-181730-
CORYELL TX-
1157 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL CORYELL COUNTY

AT 1157 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF GATESVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 45
MPH.

PEA-SIZED HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3136 9800 3158 9796 3171 9769 3133 9779
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 190DEG 41KT 3145 9787

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1208 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ095-181745-
LAMAR TX-
1208 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 1208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES EAST OF PARIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLOSSOM AND DEPORT.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3359 9552 3389 9537 3388 9535 3391 9533
      3391 9532 3388 9528 3349 9529 3348 9530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 204DEG 48KT 3367 9534

85/NH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ119-181800-
DALLAS TX-
1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY

AT 1232 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF HUTCHINS...MOVING NORTH AT 50
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BALCH SPRINGS...HUTCHINS...
MESQUITE...SEAGOVILLE...SUNNYVALE AND WILMER.

PEA-SIZED HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3283 9669 3281 9651 3255 9656 3255 9675
      3256 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 190DEG 45KT 3253 9664

SCHULTZ

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