Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF PACKAGE
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE WACO AREA BY MID MORNING.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING...SCATTERED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY AFFECT THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2-3SM.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM FORT WORTH TO NEAR GOLDTHWAITE. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE ALSO BREEZY WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS. THESE
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. CEILINGS ARE THE
TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST AS THEY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATER TONIGHT BUT CEILINGS MAY
AT TIMES BRIEFLY LOWER INTO IFR OR RAISE INTO VFR.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS ALONG AND BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED AND IS RESULTING
IN HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. WE
HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES. EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN AREA TO SHIFT EAST WITH
TIME. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 WHERE THE BEST CAPE IS LOCATED. THE RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
AND SHOULD FINALLY END ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES
OF RAIN IS STILL LIKELY IN MANY AREAS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. THE ECM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A CHANCE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES FORECASTS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TODAY SINCE TEMPERATURES
AT SUNRISE WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE DAYTIME HIGH. CLOUDS SHOULD
STAY IN OVERNIGHT AND KEEP LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THE SUN WILL
MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. EXPECT A SMALL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  43  67  43  73 / 100  80   5   0   0
WACO, TX              69  45  68  42  72 / 100  60   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             72  43  64  39  68 / 100 100  40   0   0
DENTON, TX            63  41  65  39  69 / 100  80   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          65  43  66  39  69 / 100  90  20   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  45  65  43  73 / 100  90  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  44  65  42  71 / 100  90  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         70  45  66  41  71 / 100  70   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  43  69  42  73 / 100  60   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

82/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
353 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CISCO...TO GRANBURY...TO
GATESVILLE...TO LAMPASAS.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS MOVES OVER THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO END EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ142-181115-
MILLS TX-
547 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MILLS COUNTY

AT 547 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF RICHLAND SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTH AT 50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GOLDTHWAITE AND MULLIN.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3141 9873 3139 9875 3147 9897 3161 9879
      3169 9875 3172 9849 3149 9830 3147 9831
      3129 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 1047Z 194DEG 47KT 3137 9898

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ141-181200-
COMANCHE TX-
631 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY

AT 631 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF EARLY...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DE LEON.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3226 9855 3217 9850 3215 9846 3212 9845
      3210 9844 3208 9844 3182 9875 3209 9892
TIME...MOT...LOC 1131Z 194DEG 50KT 3194 9890

SCHULTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ129-181200-
EASTLAND TX-
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN EASTLAND COUNTY

AT 633 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EASTLAND...MOVING NORTH AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE EASTLAND AND RANGER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3251 9881 3252 9848 3248 9847 3230 9848
      3222 9866 3230 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 1133Z 190DEG 38KT 3231 9874

SCHULTZ