River Flood Warning 28, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
226 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS BEING FED BY A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH SO FAR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAVE PROVED TO BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS. MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE AND TWO
INCHES SO FAR WITH ANOTHER INCH OR MORE STILL POSSIBLE. EVEN AS
THE FRONT EXITS STAGE RIGHT...WE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE
REGION. LARGELY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
TRAINING OF CELLS AND FLASH FLOODING. WRAP-AROUND PRECIP WILL
LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD
SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY.

UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME FLAT AND ZONAL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL TO OUR NORTH. HAVE
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK STAYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SH/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  66  43  72  50 / 100   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              46  69  41  72  52 /  60   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             45  64  41  69  46 / 100  20   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            45  66  40  72  49 / 100   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  66  39  73  48 / 100  20   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            49  67  44  73  52 / 100   5   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           48  65  40  72  50 /  90  10   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         47  67  41  73  49 /  70   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            46  70  40  72  48 /  40   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
900 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A
CAMERON...CORSICANA.....SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL ALSO END EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

58/82

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
150 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ095-181915-
LAMAR TX-
150 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARIS...MOVING NORTH AT 55
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PARIS.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3349 9560 3348 9570 3349 9581 3389 9574
      3387 9545 3347 9556 3347 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 188DEG 50KT 3353 9568

SCHULTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
211 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RED OAK                 32.52N  96.81W
03/18/2008                   ELLIS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOBILE HOME PARK BEING EVACUATED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
216 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TXZ101-116-181945-
JACK TX-PALO PINTO TX-
216 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY
  EASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY

AT 216 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS...MOVING
NORTH AT 55 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GRAFORD AND MINERAL WELLS.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3323 9821 3316 9792 3306 9791 3300 9795
      3299 9806 3280 9806 3255 9820 3260 9840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 198DEG 49KT 3267 9827

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
231 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKWALL                32.92N  96.46W
03/18/2008                   ROCKWALL           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NORTH AND SOUTHBOUND I-30 SERVICE ROADS CLOSED NEAR MILE
            MARKER 79 DUE TO FLOODING.

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